Airfreight markets are entering the final quarter of 2026 with strengthening demand, sharply rising fuel costs and growing pressure on capacity, although significant differences between trades are creating contrasting conditions for shippers.
Global air cargo demand rebounded strongly in September, with volumes increasing 9% year on year, supported by high-value technology shipments and the continued expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Following a brief slowdown during China's Golden Week holiday, activity accelerated again in October. The global Baltic Air Freight Index rose 4.7% in the week to 19 October, reaching levels above the peaks recorded during the previous two years.
With freight rates approximately 26% higher year on year and jet fuel costs more than doubling, the market is entering its traditional peak season from an already elevated position.
However, the strongest pressures are concentrated on particular trade lanes, rather than reflecting a uniform increase in global demand.
Transpacific demand leads the market
Asia–US airfreight is experiencing the strongest growth, driven increasingly by shipments of semiconductors, servers, computer components and equipment supporting data-centre development.
This demand is adding to traditional seasonal volumes from consumer electronics, product launches and e-commerce.
WorldACD figures for October show Asia-Pacific air cargo volumes to the US increasing 14% year on year, while average rates on the trade were 41% higher.
The return of Chinese manufacturing activity after Golden Week generated a further surge in demand, with Hong Kong–US volumes rising 27% week on week and mainland China–US increasing 18%.
Technology-related demand is particularly significant because some major customers are securing substantial blocks of airline capacity, potentially reducing the space available to other shippers.
With further AI infrastructure shipments expected through the final quarter, transpacific capacity could tighten considerably, particularly at key Asian origins.
Asia–Europe recovers, but remains below last year's volumes
The Asia–Europe market presents a different picture.
Although volumes recovered after Golden Week, demand remains weaker than a year ago, reflecting changes in e-commerce flows and the impact of new EU charges on low-value imports.
Air cargo volumes from Asia-Pacific to Europe were 16% lower year on year in mid-October, despite a 13% week-on-week recovery.
The decline has been particularly pronounced from Hong Kong, where Europe-bound volumes fell 32% compared with the previous year.
Mainland China has also experienced weaker demand, although September figures suggested some improvement following deeper declines during July and August.
Nevertheless, rates remain elevated, with Asia-Europe pricing 25% higher year on year in October, despite increasing only 1% week on week.
This divergence between weaker volumes and higher freight costs highlights the influence of fuel prices, geopolitical disruption and airline operating costs.
Further EU measures affecting low-value e-commerce shipments from November could add to uncertainty over demand patterns.
Transatlantic remains comparatively subdued
Transatlantic airfreight has not experienced the same acceleration as the transpacific, with recent October assessments showing softer pricing on Europe–US services, with outbound rates from major European gateways declining.
Frankfurt's overall outbound index fell 6.6%, while London Heathrow declined 2.3%, although both remained more than 30% above their year-earlier levels.
US-origin rates to Europe and the UK also softened.
These movements suggest that transatlantic capacity and demand remain more balanced than on the busiest Asia–US routes, although elevated fuel costs continue to influence the overall pricing environment.
For shippers, the contrast reinforces the importance of assessing supply and demand for individual origin and destination markets rather than assuming that global rate increases apply equally across all routes.
However, demand is only one factor driving the current market. Jet fuel prices increased approximately 114% year on year by mid-October, reflecting the impact of geopolitical conflict and disruption to international energy markets.
Airlines are responding through higher fuel surcharges and tighter control of operating costs. At the same time, restrictions affecting airspace and international routing options are increasing operational complexity and potentially reducing effective capacity.
These pressures help explain why freight rates remain substantially above 2025 levels even on routes where cargo volumes have weakened.
The combination of rising operating costs and concentrated demand means that lower volumes will not necessarily translate into lower freight rates.
Capacity planning becomes critical for the final quarter
The latest market data points towards a peak season shaped by competing pressures.
Technology and AI infrastructure shipments are generating substantial demand across the transpacific, while Asia–Europe continues to adjust to changing e-commerce patterns.
Meanwhile, airlines are increasing freighter deployment selectively, with global capacity rising 2% in mid-October following two weeks of reductions.
However, the availability of additional aircraft does not guarantee space on the routes experiencing the strongest demand.
Shippers should secure capacity early on high-demand transpacific routes, particularly for time-sensitive technology and industrial shipments.
Where concentrated demand or operational disruption restricts available space, alternative gateways and routings may provide greater flexibility. With fuel prices continuing to rise, businesses should also monitor total freight costs, including fuel surcharges, rather than focusing solely on headline airfreight rates.
Securing capacity when airfreight markets tighten
When airfreight markets tighten, securing dependable capacity and controlling costs requires more than access to airline schedules.
Metro combines established airline relationships, international buying power and specialist airfreight expertise with a global network connecting businesses with major international air cargo gateways.
From scheduled airfreight and consolidation to charter solutions, customs clearance and final delivery, Metro provides coordinated transport options tailored to shipment priorities.
Supported by experienced local teams and international network visibility, we help customers assess available capacity, evaluate alternative routings and respond to changing market conditions.
Whether you're securing peak-season space from Asia, managing transatlantic movements or reviewing your 2027 airfreight strategy, Metro can help protect delivery performance while maintaining control over your logistics costs.
Contact Metro to discuss your airfreight requirements and identify the capacity, routing and service options best suited to your business.
