aircraft vapour trails

Global airfreight peak accelerates

Oct 27, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Airfreight markets are entering the final quarter of 2026 with strengthening demand, sharply rising fuel costs and growing pressure on capacity, although significant differences between trades are creating contrasting conditions for shippers.

Global air cargo demand rebounded strongly in September, with volumes increasing 9% year on year, supported by high-value technology shipments and the continued expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Following a brief slowdown during China's Golden Week holiday, activity accelerated again in October. The global Baltic Air Freight Index rose 4.7% in the week to 19 October, reaching levels above the peaks recorded during the previous two years.

With freight rates approximately 26% higher year on year and jet fuel costs more than doubling, the market is entering its traditional peak season from an already elevated position.

However, the strongest pressures are concentrated on particular trade lanes, rather than reflecting a uniform increase in global demand.

Transpacific demand leads the market

Asia–US airfreight is experiencing the strongest growth, driven increasingly by shipments of semiconductors, servers, computer components and equipment supporting data-centre development.

This demand is adding to traditional seasonal volumes from consumer electronics, product launches and e-commerce.

WorldACD figures for October show Asia-Pacific air cargo volumes to the US increasing 14% year on year, while average rates on the trade were 41% higher.

The return of Chinese manufacturing activity after Golden Week generated a further surge in demand, with Hong Kong–US volumes rising 27% week on week and mainland China–US increasing 18%.

Technology-related demand is particularly significant because some major customers are securing substantial blocks of airline capacity, potentially reducing the space available to other shippers.

With further AI infrastructure shipments expected through the final quarter, transpacific capacity could tighten considerably, particularly at key Asian origins.

Asia–Europe recovers, but remains below last year's volumes

The Asia–Europe market presents a different picture.

Although volumes recovered after Golden Week, demand remains weaker than a year ago, reflecting changes in e-commerce flows and the impact of new EU charges on low-value imports.

Air cargo volumes from Asia-Pacific to Europe were 16% lower year on year in mid-October, despite a 13% week-on-week recovery.

The decline has been particularly pronounced from Hong Kong, where Europe-bound volumes fell 32% compared with the previous year.

Mainland China has also experienced weaker demand, although September figures suggested some improvement following deeper declines during July and August.

Nevertheless, rates remain elevated, with Asia-Europe pricing 25% higher year on year in October, despite increasing only 1% week on week.

This divergence between weaker volumes and higher freight costs highlights the influence of fuel prices, geopolitical disruption and airline operating costs.

Further EU measures affecting low-value e-commerce shipments from November could add to uncertainty over demand patterns.

Transatlantic remains comparatively subdued

Transatlantic airfreight has not experienced the same acceleration as the transpacific, with recent October assessments showing softer pricing on Europe–US services, and outbound rates from major European gateways declining.

Frankfurt's overall outbound index fell 6.6%, while London Heathrow declined 2.3%, although both remained more than 30% above their year-earlier levels.

US-origin rates to Europe and the UK also softened.

These movements suggest that transatlantic capacity and demand remain more balanced than on the busiest Asia–US routes, although elevated fuel costs continue to influence the overall pricing environment.

For shippers, the contrast reinforces the importance of assessing supply and demand for individual origin and destination markets rather than assuming that global rate increases apply equally across all routes.

However, demand is only one factor driving the current market. Jet fuel prices increased approximately 114% year on year by mid-October, reflecting the impact of geopolitical conflict and disruption to international energy markets.

Airlines are responding through higher fuel surcharges and tighter control of operating costs. At the same time, restrictions affecting airspace and international routing options are increasing operational complexity and potentially reducing effective capacity.

These pressures help explain why freight rates remain substantially above 2025 levels even on routes where cargo volumes have weakened.

The combination of rising operating costs and concentrated demand means that lower volumes will not necessarily translate into lower freight rates.

Capacity planning becomes critical for the final quarter

The latest market data points towards a peak season shaped by competing pressures.

Technology and AI infrastructure shipments are generating substantial demand across the transpacific, while Asia–Europe continues to adjust to changing e-commerce patterns.

Meanwhile, airlines are increasing freighter deployment selectively, with global capacity rising 2% in mid-October following two weeks of reductions.

However, the availability of additional aircraft does not guarantee space on the routes experiencing the strongest demand.

Shippers should secure capacity early on high-demand transpacific routes, particularly for time-sensitive technology and industrial shipments. 

Where concentrated demand or operational disruption restricts available space, alternative gateways and routings may provide greater flexibility. With fuel prices continuing to rise, businesses should also monitor total freight costs, including fuel surcharges, rather than focusing solely on headline airfreight rates.

Securing capacity when airfreight markets tighten

When airfreight markets tighten, securing dependable capacity and controlling costs requires more than access to airline schedules.

Metro combines established airline relationships, international buying power and specialist airfreight expertise with a global network connecting businesses with major international air cargo gateways.

From scheduled airfreight and consolidation to charter solutions, customs clearance and final delivery, Metro provides coordinated transport options tailored to shipment priorities.

Supported by experienced local teams and international network visibility, we help customers assess available capacity, evaluate alternative routings and respond to changing market conditions.

Whether you're securing peak-season space from Asia, managing transatlantic movements or reviewing your 2027 airfreight strategy, Metro can help protect delivery performance while maintaining control over your logistics costs.

Contact Metro to discuss your airfreight requirements and identify the capacity, routing and service options best suited to your business.

Suez convoy

Suez Canal return gathers pace

Oct 27, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Nearly two-thirds of Far East–Europe container shipping capacity is now operating through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, marking a significant shift away from Cape of Good Hope diversions, although security concerns and changing service rotations mean the return remains uneven.

After almost three years of widespread diversions around southern Africa, container shipping is progressively returning to one of the world's most important trade corridors.

Major shipping lines have restored Suez transits across a growing number of Asia–Europe services, with the recovery now extending to selected routes connecting Asia and the US East Coast.

The transition could shorten delivery times, reduce fuel consumption and eventually release substantial vessel capacity. However, mixed routings, ongoing security assessments and potential congestion at European ports mean the benefits will not be immediate or consistent across every service.

Nearly two-thirds of Asia–Europe capacity returns

The scale of the recovery is becoming increasingly clear.

63%
Far East–Europe capacity using the Red Sea
70%
Far East–Mediterranean capacity
58%
Far East–North Europe capacity
24 of 46
Direct Far East–Europe services transiting the Red Sea

Analysis of the ten largest container shipping networks shows that approximately 5.5 million TEU of the 8.7 million TEU deployed between the Far East and Europe is now assigned to services using the Red Sea.

The Mediterranean trades are leading the recovery, with around 70% of capacity back on Suez routings, compared with 58% on Far East–North Europe services.

However, the return is not uniform.

Some services use the Suez Canal westbound towards Europe but continue to route eastbound voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.

This approach allows carriers to reintroduce shorter routings selectively while retaining flexibility if regional security conditions deteriorate.

Major carriers accelerate their return

The shift has gathered momentum since the summer, with several major shipping groups progressively restoring services.

MSC resumed Suez transits in August and now operates 11 loops through the waterway, representing approximately 2.2 million TEU of deployed capacity.

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have also expanded their use of the route, with nine alliance services representing around 1.76 million TEU.

CMA CGM maintained a presence through the Suez Canal during the disruption and has subsequently expanded its operations, while COSCO and OOCL have restored six services with combined deployed capacity of approximately 1.27 million TEU.

The Premier Alliance has also begun returning selected services, adding further momentum.

With some networks operating through Suez in both directions, others retaining Cape diversions, and several using different routes for outbound and return voyages, individual service patterns remain important when assessing transit times and reliability.

Weekly Suez traffic continues to strengthen

The recovery is also evident in actual canal traffic. Containership transits increased from 54 in week 41 to 55 in week 42, extending a period of improving volumes.

The latest figures indicate that more carriers are progressively restoring services rather than relying solely on occasional voyages.

However, the canal remains well below its historical potential, and the return is taking place against a backdrop of continuing security concerns around the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

For shipping lines, the commercial advantages of Suez are substantial. Shorter voyages can reduce fuel consumption, lower operating costs and potentially allow carriers to maintain weekly services with fewer vessels.

With bunker prices remaining elevated, these savings provide a strong incentive to restore shorter routes wherever security assessments permit.

Asia–US East Coast services begin returning

The recovery is no longer confined to Europe. MSC and Zim have resumed Suez transits in both directions on their shared Asia–US East Coast service, marking a further development in the restoration of global shipping networks.

The first northbound sailing departed Singapore on 18 October, with arrival in New York–New Jersey expected on 18 November.

Other services connecting India and the Middle East with the US East Coast have also resumed Suez routings, although some continue to use the Cape of Good Hope in the opposite direction.

For shippers, the potential transit-time benefits vary considerably. Asia–Europe services returning to Suez have achieved average transit-time improvements of approximately seven days.

However, North American services have experienced mixed results, with some achieving modest savings and others recording longer overall transit times despite using the shorter canal route.

Port rotations, transhipment arrangements and congestion at intermediate gateways can offset the theoretical advantages of a shorter voyage.

Full return could happen in early 2027

Industry expectations increasingly point towards a broader restoration of Suez services during the first quarter of 2027.

However, this remains a scenario rather than a confirmed timetable.

Maersk has discussed the possibility of further service returns, but has emphasised that no definitive schedule has been announced and that future changes will depend on security conditions, operational planning and consultation with partners and customers.

The pace of recovery will also depend on the ability of ports and inland transport networks to accommodate changing vessel arrival patterns.

Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges are already experiencing challenges associated with overlapping schedules and fluctuating volumes as services transition between Cape and Suez routings.

A faster return could release significant effective vessel capacity into the market, potentially increasing pressure on ocean freight rates.

At the same time, changes to vessel rotations and arrival patterns could create temporary congestion, schedule disruption and equipment imbalances.

Changing ocean networks offer supply-chain opportunities

The return to Suez could reshape ocean freight costs, transit times and capacity availability. Making the most of these changes requires accurate market intelligence and the flexibility to respond.

Our teams monitor carrier routing decisions, vessel schedules, port conditions and freight rates, identifying opportunities to improve transit times, manage costs and maintain reliable delivery performance.

Whether you're reviewing Asia–Europe or trans-Pacific shipping arrangements, evaluating India–US connections or preparing for further network changes in 2027, Metro can help you understand the implications and identify practical alternatives.

Contact Metro to review your ocean freight strategy and take advantage of emerging routing, capacity and cost opportunities as the Suez Canal recovery gathers pace.

Golden Week

Post-Golden Week capacity pressures diverge

Oct 14, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping lines are adjusting capacity as Asian factories resume production following Golden Week, with relatively few cancelled sailings but contrasting conditions emerging on routes to Europe and the United States.

As China's Golden Week holiday ends and export activity resumes, attention is turning to the availability of container shipping capacity across the major east–west trades.

Carriers traditionally cancel sailings during and immediately after the holiday to balance vessel capacity against temporarily reduced cargo volumes.

This year, however, announced cancellations remain relatively modest, even as shipping lines pursue freight rate increases and adjust their networks to changing demand and routing conditions.

The result is a market in which overall capacity appears relatively plentiful, but individual trade lanes and services may present very different challenges for shippers.

Blank sailings remain below historical levels

Drewry's latest Cancelled Sailings Tracker, published on 9 October, identifies 34 blank sailings across the major east–west trades between Weeks 42 and 46, covering 12 October to 15 November.

That represents just 5% of 713 scheduled voyages, meaning 95% of planned sailings are expected to operate.

The cancellations are distributed unevenly:

  • Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean: 50% of announced cancellations.
  • Trans-Pacific eastbound: 32%.
  • Transatlantic: 18%.

The figures represent a relatively low level of capacity withdrawal compared with post-pandemic patterns.

Sea-Intelligence analysis indicates that approximately 10% of Asia–US West Coast sailings have typically been cancelled during comparable periods since 2020, with recent blanking levels running below that average.

Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean services have also experienced comparatively low cancellation levels.

However, aggregate figures can disguise the impact on individual shippers.

A cancelled sailing may represent only a small proportion of overall capacity but can create significant problems for cargo booked on the affected service, particularly when alternative departures are limited.

Asia–Europe faces increasing capacity pressure

The Asia–Europe trade is experiencing a more complicated adjustment as carriers gradually restore services through the Suez Canal.

Shorter routings compared with diversions around the Cape of Good Hope are increasing effective vessel capacity, potentially placing downward pressure on freight rates.

The return of capacity coincides with relatively steady post-Golden Week bookings and limited overall sailing cancellations.

Carriers have nevertheless announced plans for freight rate increases during the second half of October, despite reducing some rates earlier in the month.

This apparent contradiction reflects the uncertainty surrounding the balance between cargo demand, available vessel space and carriers' capacity management strategies.

Drewry's World Container Index declined 2% in the week to 8 October, with rates easing across the major east–west trades.

For European importers, the additional capacity could create opportunities, although the timing and reliability of individual services remain important.

More available vessel space does not necessarily mean more predictable deliveries.

Port congestion, schedule adjustments and changes to vessel rotations can still disrupt shipments, particularly where cargo depends on feeder connections or transhipment services.

Trans-Pacific conditions remain different

The trans-Pacific market presents a contrasting picture.

Although the trade accounts for 32% of announced blank sailings during Weeks 42–46, the relatively limited number of cancellations suggests carriers are maintaining most scheduled services as Asian export activity resumes.

Recent market analysis indicates that trans-Pacific blanking levels remain low compared with historical patterns, despite carriers continuing to manage capacity and support freight rates.

Demand conditions also differ from those on Asia–Europe routes, with US import requirements and changing sourcing patterns influencing cargo flows.

The return of Chinese manufacturing activity after Golden Week could increase booking pressure on individual departures, particularly where pre-holiday shipments have been rolled or delayed.

For US importers, the immediate challenge is therefore less about widespread sailing cancellations and more about securing reliable space on the services that meet their delivery requirements.

Even where overall capacity appears sufficient, individual ports, departure dates and carrier services may experience tighter availability.

Carrier reliability varies across alliances

The latest Drewry figures also highlight differences between carrier networks. For Weeks 42–46, the proportion of scheduled sailings expected to operate ranges from 89% for Premier Alliance to 99% for Gemini Cooperation.

MSC and Ocean Alliance are expected to operate 97% and 98% of planned sailings respectively, while independent carriers and other services are forecast to operate 93%.

These differences underline the importance of assessing individual carrier schedules rather than relying solely on overall market capacity. However, a sailing operating as scheduled does not guarantee an on-time arrival.

Port congestion, vessel delays, equipment availability and changes to port rotations can still affect cargo movements, even when a scheduled departure is not cancelled.

This makes early booking, alternative routing options and accurate shipment visibility increasingly valuable.

Metro connects Asian origins with Europe and the USA

Working alongside Metro's wider international network, our UK and US teams support customers with origin planning, carrier selection, shipment visibility and destination coordination.

As post-Golden Week schedules settle, Metro can help shippers distinguish between published capacity and practical availability, anticipate disruption and secure services that meet their operational requirements.

Protect your supply chain. Let Metro's sea freight experts review your upcoming shipments, assess carrier schedules and identify reliable transport options before changing capacity conditions disrupt your product flows.

Saudia air

Airfreight demand and Middle East disruption tighten peak-season

Oct 14, 2026 | , , , , , , , , ,

Airfreight markets are entering the fourth-quarter peak season with demand strengthening, capacity tightening on key routes and renewed disruption in the Middle East adding pressure to airline networks and transport costs.

Global air cargo demand recovered strongly in September, with worldwide tonnages increasing 9% year on year, according to WorldACD. Growth was particularly strong across Asia Pacific and North America, where volumes increased 10%.

The recovery reflects continued demand for high-value and time-sensitive shipments, particularly equipment supporting artificial intelligence, data centres and semiconductor manufacturing.

However, the market is becoming increasingly uneven, with trans-Pacific demand accelerating, China–Europe volumes recovering only gradually and Middle East disruption affecting available capacity.

Peak-season demand strengthens despite temporary rate dip

Airfreight rates edged higher throughout September as shippers prepared for the traditional fourth-quarter peak.

Worldwide average rates increased 1% month on month and stood 25% above September 2025 levels, reflecting stronger demand, elevated fuel costs and continuing capacity constraints.

The Baltic Air Freight Index subsequently rose 5% in the week to 5 October before easing 2.1% during China's Golden Week holiday, when factory closures temporarily reduced export volumes.

Despite that decline, the index remained 24.3% higher year on year as the market entered its busiest quarter.

Capacity commitments are already influencing the outlook. Major e-commerce operators and businesses preparing product launches have secured peak-season space, while some large AI infrastructure customers have yet to finalise their requirements.

Additional bookings from these shippers could tighten available capacity and push rates higher during the coming weeks.

AI infrastructure drives trans-Pacific growth

The expansion of AI infrastructure has become a significant driver of air cargo demand, particularly between Asia and North America.

Large volumes of servers, semiconductors, data-centre equipment and energy storage systems are moving from manufacturing centres in Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and China to support US investment in digital infrastructure.

Trans-Pacific airfreight volumes increased 10% year on year in September, with outbound Asian load factors approaching 90%, despite airlines increasing capacity by approximately 10%.

The strength of demand is also influencing airline deployment decisions, with freighters being transferred from other routes to serve the trans-Pacific market.

WorldACD figures reinforce the trend, showing China–US air cargo tonnages increasing 17% year on year in September, while average spot rates rose approximately 30%.

Ocean freight disruption could add further pressure. Schedule reliability from Asia to the US West Coast reportedly fell from 56% in May to just 26% in September, increasing the potential for urgent shipments to transfer to airfreight.

Saudi attacks create further capacity uncertainty

Renewed attacks on Saudi Arabian airports have introduced another source of disruption as the peak season gathers pace.

Following strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and other Saudi facilities, airlines suspended services and authorities imposed operational restrictions.

Initial data showed Riyadh's international outbound air cargo capacity falling 34% over 24 hours, with freighter capacity particularly affected.

Further attacks prompted an extended suspension of operations at Riyadh on 12 October, while Dammam International Airport also experienced disruption.

The immediate consequences extend beyond Saudi Arabia. Airlines operating between Asia and Europe have already been adjusting their networks following wider Middle East disruption, including the loss of established intermediate stops.

Alternative routings can increase flying times, introduce payload restrictions and reduce the effective capacity available to shippers.

With peak-season demand building, prolonged restrictions could intensify competition for available space, particularly on routes connecting Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

China–Europe recovery remains uneven

While trans-Pacific demand continues to strengthen, the China–Europe market presents a different picture.

Combined air cargo volumes from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe fell 10% year on year in September, although this represented an improvement on declines of 14% in July and 15% in August.

The downturn reflects changes to EU treatment of low-value e-commerce imports, which have affected shipments from Hong Kong and southern China.

Hong Kong–Europe tonnages remained 24% below September 2025 levels, while mainland China recorded a more modest 2% decline.

Rates have reflected this divergence, with China–Europe average prices increasing approximately 9% year on year in September, compared with a 30% increase in China–US spot rates.

The figures highlight how demand, regulation and available capacity are creating increasingly different conditions across major airfreight corridors.

Planning ahead as capacity tightens

The fourth-quarter outlook points towards sustained demand, particularly on trans-Pacific routes, with further potential for rate increases as remaining peak-season capacity is committed.

Saudi Arabian disruption adds uncertainty to an already constrained market, while higher fuel costs and shifting airline networks could affect availability and pricing across other trade lanes.

For shippers, early planning, accurate forecasts and flexibility over routing and departure dates will be increasingly important.

Metro's global airfreight network, airline relationships and experienced operational teams help customers secure capacity, assess alternative routings and respond quickly when market conditions change.

Whether managing regular shipments, urgent requirements or time-critical cargo, Metro combines international buying power with local expertise and shipment visibility to keep supply chains moving.

Contact Metro's airfreight team to review your peak-season requirements, protect critical shipments and identify the most effective options before capacity becomes constrained.

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