aircraft vapour trails

Global airfreight peak accelerates

Oct 27, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Airfreight markets are entering the final quarter of 2026 with strengthening demand, sharply rising fuel costs and growing pressure on capacity, although significant differences between trades are creating contrasting conditions for shippers.

Global air cargo demand rebounded strongly in September, with volumes increasing 9% year on year, supported by high-value technology shipments and the continued expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Following a brief slowdown during China's Golden Week holiday, activity accelerated again in October. The global Baltic Air Freight Index rose 4.7% in the week to 19 October, reaching levels above the peaks recorded during the previous two years.

With freight rates approximately 26% higher year on year and jet fuel costs more than doubling, the market is entering its traditional peak season from an already elevated position.

However, the strongest pressures are concentrated on particular trade lanes, rather than reflecting a uniform increase in global demand.

Transpacific demand leads the market

Asia–US airfreight is experiencing the strongest growth, driven increasingly by shipments of semiconductors, servers, computer components and equipment supporting data-centre development.

This demand is adding to traditional seasonal volumes from consumer electronics, product launches and e-commerce.

WorldACD figures for October show Asia-Pacific air cargo volumes to the US increasing 14% year on year, while average rates on the trade were 41% higher.

The return of Chinese manufacturing activity after Golden Week generated a further surge in demand, with Hong Kong–US volumes rising 27% week on week and mainland China–US increasing 18%.

Technology-related demand is particularly significant because some major customers are securing substantial blocks of airline capacity, potentially reducing the space available to other shippers.

With further AI infrastructure shipments expected through the final quarter, transpacific capacity could tighten considerably, particularly at key Asian origins.

Asia–Europe recovers, but remains below last year's volumes

The Asia–Europe market presents a different picture.

Although volumes recovered after Golden Week, demand remains weaker than a year ago, reflecting changes in e-commerce flows and the impact of new EU charges on low-value imports.

Air cargo volumes from Asia-Pacific to Europe were 16% lower year on year in mid-October, despite a 13% week-on-week recovery.

The decline has been particularly pronounced from Hong Kong, where Europe-bound volumes fell 32% compared with the previous year.

Mainland China has also experienced weaker demand, although September figures suggested some improvement following deeper declines during July and August.

Nevertheless, rates remain elevated, with Asia-Europe pricing 25% higher year on year in October, despite increasing only 1% week on week.

This divergence between weaker volumes and higher freight costs highlights the influence of fuel prices, geopolitical disruption and airline operating costs.

Further EU measures affecting low-value e-commerce shipments from November could add to uncertainty over demand patterns.

Transatlantic remains comparatively subdued

Transatlantic airfreight has not experienced the same acceleration as the transpacific, with recent October assessments showing softer pricing on Europe–US services, and outbound rates from major European gateways declining.

Frankfurt's overall outbound index fell 6.6%, while London Heathrow declined 2.3%, although both remained more than 30% above their year-earlier levels.

US-origin rates to Europe and the UK also softened.

These movements suggest that transatlantic capacity and demand remain more balanced than on the busiest Asia–US routes, although elevated fuel costs continue to influence the overall pricing environment.

For shippers, the contrast reinforces the importance of assessing supply and demand for individual origin and destination markets rather than assuming that global rate increases apply equally across all routes.

However, demand is only one factor driving the current market. Jet fuel prices increased approximately 114% year on year by mid-October, reflecting the impact of geopolitical conflict and disruption to international energy markets.

Airlines are responding through higher fuel surcharges and tighter control of operating costs. At the same time, restrictions affecting airspace and international routing options are increasing operational complexity and potentially reducing effective capacity.

These pressures help explain why freight rates remain substantially above 2025 levels even on routes where cargo volumes have weakened.

The combination of rising operating costs and concentrated demand means that lower volumes will not necessarily translate into lower freight rates.

Capacity planning becomes critical for the final quarter

The latest market data points towards a peak season shaped by competing pressures.

Technology and AI infrastructure shipments are generating substantial demand across the transpacific, while Asia–Europe continues to adjust to changing e-commerce patterns.

Meanwhile, airlines are increasing freighter deployment selectively, with global capacity rising 2% in mid-October following two weeks of reductions.

However, the availability of additional aircraft does not guarantee space on the routes experiencing the strongest demand.

Shippers should secure capacity early on high-demand transpacific routes, particularly for time-sensitive technology and industrial shipments. 

Where concentrated demand or operational disruption restricts available space, alternative gateways and routings may provide greater flexibility. With fuel prices continuing to rise, businesses should also monitor total freight costs, including fuel surcharges, rather than focusing solely on headline airfreight rates.

Securing capacity when airfreight markets tighten

When airfreight markets tighten, securing dependable capacity and controlling costs requires more than access to airline schedules.

Metro combines established airline relationships, international buying power and specialist airfreight expertise with a global network connecting businesses with major international air cargo gateways.

From scheduled airfreight and consolidation to charter solutions, customs clearance and final delivery, Metro provides coordinated transport options tailored to shipment priorities.

Supported by experienced local teams and international network visibility, we help customers assess available capacity, evaluate alternative routings and respond to changing market conditions.

Whether you're securing peak-season space from Asia, managing transatlantic movements or reviewing your 2027 airfreight strategy, Metro can help protect delivery performance while maintaining control over your logistics costs.

Contact Metro to discuss your airfreight requirements and identify the capacity, routing and service options best suited to your business.

Saudia air

Airfreight demand and Middle East disruption tighten peak-season

Oct 14, 2026 | , , , , , , , , ,

Airfreight markets are entering the fourth-quarter peak season with demand strengthening, capacity tightening on key routes and renewed disruption in the Middle East adding pressure to airline networks and transport costs.

Global air cargo demand recovered strongly in September, with worldwide tonnages increasing 9% year on year, according to WorldACD. Growth was particularly strong across Asia Pacific and North America, where volumes increased 10%.

The recovery reflects continued demand for high-value and time-sensitive shipments, particularly equipment supporting artificial intelligence, data centres and semiconductor manufacturing.

However, the market is becoming increasingly uneven, with trans-Pacific demand accelerating, China–Europe volumes recovering only gradually and Middle East disruption affecting available capacity.

Peak-season demand strengthens despite temporary rate dip

Airfreight rates edged higher throughout September as shippers prepared for the traditional fourth-quarter peak.

Worldwide average rates increased 1% month on month and stood 25% above September 2025 levels, reflecting stronger demand, elevated fuel costs and continuing capacity constraints.

The Baltic Air Freight Index subsequently rose 5% in the week to 5 October before easing 2.1% during China's Golden Week holiday, when factory closures temporarily reduced export volumes.

Despite that decline, the index remained 24.3% higher year on year as the market entered its busiest quarter.

Capacity commitments are already influencing the outlook. Major e-commerce operators and businesses preparing product launches have secured peak-season space, while some large AI infrastructure customers have yet to finalise their requirements.

Additional bookings from these shippers could tighten available capacity and push rates higher during the coming weeks.

AI infrastructure drives trans-Pacific growth

The expansion of AI infrastructure has become a significant driver of air cargo demand, particularly between Asia and North America.

Large volumes of servers, semiconductors, data-centre equipment and energy storage systems are moving from manufacturing centres in Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and China to support US investment in digital infrastructure.

Trans-Pacific airfreight volumes increased 10% year on year in September, with outbound Asian load factors approaching 90%, despite airlines increasing capacity by approximately 10%.

The strength of demand is also influencing airline deployment decisions, with freighters being transferred from other routes to serve the trans-Pacific market.

WorldACD figures reinforce the trend, showing China–US air cargo tonnages increasing 17% year on year in September, while average spot rates rose approximately 30%.

Ocean freight disruption could add further pressure. Schedule reliability from Asia to the US West Coast reportedly fell from 56% in May to just 26% in September, increasing the potential for urgent shipments to transfer to airfreight.

Saudi attacks create further capacity uncertainty

Renewed attacks on Saudi Arabian airports have introduced another source of disruption as the peak season gathers pace.

Following strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and other Saudi facilities, airlines suspended services and authorities imposed operational restrictions.

Initial data showed Riyadh's international outbound air cargo capacity falling 34% over 24 hours, with freighter capacity particularly affected.

Further attacks prompted an extended suspension of operations at Riyadh on 12 October, while Dammam International Airport also experienced disruption.

The immediate consequences extend beyond Saudi Arabia. Airlines operating between Asia and Europe have already been adjusting their networks following wider Middle East disruption, including the loss of established intermediate stops.

Alternative routings can increase flying times, introduce payload restrictions and reduce the effective capacity available to shippers.

With peak-season demand building, prolonged restrictions could intensify competition for available space, particularly on routes connecting Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

China–Europe recovery remains uneven

While trans-Pacific demand continues to strengthen, the China–Europe market presents a different picture.

Combined air cargo volumes from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe fell 10% year on year in September, although this represented an improvement on declines of 14% in July and 15% in August.

The downturn reflects changes to EU treatment of low-value e-commerce imports, which have affected shipments from Hong Kong and southern China.

Hong Kong–Europe tonnages remained 24% below September 2025 levels, while mainland China recorded a more modest 2% decline.

Rates have reflected this divergence, with China–Europe average prices increasing approximately 9% year on year in September, compared with a 30% increase in China–US spot rates.

The figures highlight how demand, regulation and available capacity are creating increasingly different conditions across major airfreight corridors.

Planning ahead as capacity tightens

The fourth-quarter outlook points towards sustained demand, particularly on trans-Pacific routes, with further potential for rate increases as remaining peak-season capacity is committed.

Saudi Arabian disruption adds uncertainty to an already constrained market, while higher fuel costs and shifting airline networks could affect availability and pricing across other trade lanes.

For shippers, early planning, accurate forecasts and flexibility over routing and departure dates will be increasingly important.

Metro's global airfreight network, airline relationships and experienced operational teams help customers secure capacity, assess alternative routings and respond quickly when market conditions change.

Whether managing regular shipments, urgent requirements or time-critical cargo, Metro combines international buying power with local expertise and shipment visibility to keep supply chains moving.

Contact Metro's airfreight team to review your peak-season requirements, protect critical shipments and identify the most effective options before capacity becomes constrained.

Aircraft and moon

Airfreight market strengthens as peak season nears

Sep 30, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global air cargo demand and rates are strengthening ahead of the traditional peak season, with rising volumes, firm pricing and higher fuel costs creating a more robust market as October begins.

The latest TAC Index and WorldACD data point to increasing momentum as the industry moves towards its busiest months, although conditions continue to vary significantly by trade lane.

The global Baltic Air Freight Index gained a further 0.6% in the seven days to 28 September, extending a series of modest weekly increases and leaving rates nearly 22% above the same point last year.

Meanwhile, WorldACD recorded a fourth consecutive weekly increase in global chargeable weight in week 38, with tonnages rising 2% week on week and 8% year on year.

Demand builds across major origin markets

The underlying demand picture is increasingly positive. Asia Pacific remained one of the strongest contributors, with origin tonnages 11% higher year on year. North American volumes increased 14% week on week following the Labor Day dip and were 8% above last year's level, while European origin volumes were 6% higher year on year.

Rates are also substantially above 2025 levels. WorldACD's average worldwide full-market rate was 24% higher year on year in week 38, while average spot rates were 33% higher.

Asia Pacific spot rates were 30% above last year, with Europe up 29% and North America 34%.

TAC Index data for the following week suggests that firmness continued into the end of September, with its global index extending its year-on-year increase to 21.7%.

The backdrop is being reinforced by significantly higher fuel costs. TAC reported that jet fuel prices were 106% above their level a year earlier by 25 September, adding another source of upward pressure as the market approaches peak.

Asia markets gather momentum

Asia is likely to be central to the developing peak-season picture. TAC recorded a 3% weekly increase in its Hong Kong outbound index during the week to 28 September, taking it 20.6% above last year. Rates from India also increased strongly, while China-Europe pricing continued to firm as the market adjusted following changes affecting low-value parcel traffic.

WorldACD similarly recorded further increases in Asia Pacific-Europe spot rates during week 38, including gains from mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.

The transpacific remains particularly strong. Asia Pacific-US demand was 13% higher year on year, including significant growth from South Korea, Japan and China. Average spot rates on the trade were broadly stable week on week but approximately 40% above their level a year earlier.

The picture towards Europe is more mixed. China and Hong Kong volumes have yet to recover fully from the disruption that followed the removal of the EU de minimis exemption in July, but pricing has begun moving higher on several key origins.

Golden Week adds to peak-season pressure

Attention is now turning to China's National Day Golden Week (1–7 October), which follows closely behind the Mid-Autumn Festival (25–27 September) and compresses production, export handovers and freight planning into a short period.

Metro’s local partners are already reporting stronger general cargo demand from North China as shippers move goods before the holiday, while transpacific demand from Southern China is also increasing.

Available capacity and additional charter operations have so far helped contain more dramatic rate movements. However, the combination of recovering volumes, firm year-on-year pricing, higher fuel costs and the traditional Q4 uplift creates the potential for conditions to tighten further as October progresses.

Worldwide international capacity was only 4% higher year on year in week 38, compared with an 8% increase in tonnage. Capacity also remains constrained in some markets affected by geopolitical disruption, particularly the Gulf.

Early planning for the Q4 peak

The latest figures do not point to a uniform capacity squeeze, but they do suggest that the airfreight market is entering peak season from a considerably stronger position than a year ago.

With demand building, rates already elevated year on year and conditions varying sharply between origins and trade lanes, access to the right capacity at the right time will become increasingly important through the final quarter.

Metro's global airfreight network, carrier relationships and flexible routing options help customers secure capacity and respond quickly as market conditions change. 

If you have time-critical, high-value or peak-season shipments planned for Q4, talk to our airfreight team about protecting capacity and keeping cargo moving.

Cathay tailfins 1440x1080 1

Asia air freight enters autumn with momentum intact

Sep 16, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Air cargo’s traditional summer slowdown has failed to significantly loosen the market, with resilient demand, constrained capacity and renewed growth on key ex-Asia lanes keeping pressure on space and pricing as autumn begins.

Global air cargo volumes were 6% higher year on year in August, following 5% growth in July. More recent data shows that momentum continuing into September, with worldwide chargeable weight in week 36 still 7% above the same period last year.

Asia remains central to that strength. High-tech exports, AI and data-centre equipment, manufacturing activity and e-commerce continue to support demand, while available lift has struggled to grow at the same pace.

The result is an ex-Asia market that is increasingly defined by individual origins and trade lanes rather than a single regional trend.

Capacity remains the critical constraint

Global air cargo capacity was flat year on year during August, pushing capacity utilisation three percentage points above August 2025 levels. Dedicated freighters are carrying much of the additional demand, with freighter traffic having increased almost 14% year on year in July.

Adding substantial new lift remains difficult. Delayed new aircraft deliveries and passenger-to-freighter conversion programmes are restricting expansion, while carriers have been quick to redeploy freighters towards stronger markets.

That flexibility became particularly visible following changes to European low-value import rules. Falling e-commerce traffic initially weakened China and Hong Kong–Europe volumes, prompting some freighter capacity to move towards the stronger transpacific market.

However, the European picture is now showing signs of stabilisation. China–Europe volumes returned to modest week-on-week growth during August, while Hong Kong–Europe traffic increased 6% in week 36, its third consecutive weekly rise. Mainland China volumes have also been growing by low single-digit percentages since early August.

This recovery is significant as the market moves beyond the summer period and towards the traditional fourth-quarter peak.

Ex-Asia pricing reflects a tighter market

Although global spot pricing has gradually eased from its earlier highs, it remained 24% above last year during August. The latest weekly figures also point to renewed upward pressure from Asia.

In week 36, Asia Pacific spot rates increased 3% week on week to Europe and 2% to the US. China and Thailand to Europe both rose 6%, while Taiwan increased 7%.

Across Asia Pacific as a whole, pricing to Europe stood 15% above last year, while rates to the US were 40% higher.

High-tech manufacturing hubs remain particularly firm. Recent year-on-year increases included around 25% from South Korea and Taiwan, 22% from Vietnam, 32% from Thailand and 42% from Malaysia.

The transpacific remains especially strong. AI-related equipment and other technology exports continue to support demand from Northeast and Southeast Asia, while China and Hong Kong volumes to the US have remained resilient despite significant changes to low-value import rules.

There are also signs that the initial shock from Europe's new e-commerce rules may be passing. China’s low-value exports to Europe fell sharply after the July changes, but the subsequent improvement in China and Hong Kong tonnage suggests the market is beginning to find a new balance.

That does not necessarily mean a conventional peak season is developing. Instead, shippers face a more fragmented market in which capacity can move quickly between corridors and individual origins can tighten independently.

Further pressure could come from fuel. Rising oil prices are increasing aviation fuel costs, creating the prospect of higher surcharges just as autumn demand begins to build.

For businesses moving time-sensitive cargo from Asia, the combination of resilient demand, limited capacity growth and rapidly changing trade-lane conditions makes early planning increasingly important.

Metro combines local expertise across Asia with global air freight buying power and real-time market intelligence to identify pressure before it reaches your supply chain. 

Whether you need secured capacity, alternative gateways, flexible routings or support through the autumn peak, our air freight specialists can build the right solution around your priorities and keep critical cargo moving.

Category: Air

4PL | Air | Automotive | Chemical | eCommerce | Exports | Foodstuffs | Hazardous | Health | News | Project | Publishing | Retail | Supply Chain

Latest News in this category