Record levels of overlapping vessel departures are exposing the continuing instability of global container shipping schedules, while the accelerating return to the Suez Canal could create another wave of congestion at Northern European ports.
The latest market analysis reveals an unusual contradiction: more container capacity is operating on major East–West trades, but that does not necessarily mean more reliable services.
Delays accumulated during the third quarter have pushed vessels into subsequent sailing windows, disrupting traditional seasonal capacity adjustments and creating uncertainty for shippers planning cargo movements through November and December.
As carriers simultaneously shorten voyages by returning to the Suez Canal, the industry faces the prospect of further schedule disruption as ships travelling via different routes converge on European gateways.
Double sailings hit all-time high
Container shipping services generally operate on a weekly schedule, with one vessel departing a particular origin each week.
When congestion delays a vessel, its departure can slip into the following week, bringing it alongside the next scheduled ship. The result is two departures within the same week, known as a double sailing.
Although this can temporarily increase the capacity available in a particular week, it is not necessarily additional capacity. Much of it represents vessels and cargo that should have departed earlier.
Successive typhoons and prolonged congestion at major Asian ports have caused extensive vessel bunching, pushing double sailings beyond levels recorded during the pandemic disruption of 2021.
According to Sea-Intelligence, double sailings account for 19% of departures on Asia–Mediterranean services during October and November, compared with 17% on Asia–North Europe routes.
The phenomenon has also affected trans-Pacific services, with Asia–US East Coast double sailings reaching 18%.
For shippers, the concern is not simply how many vessels depart, but whether cargo can move according to the originally scheduled transit and delivery plan.
Carriers may struggle to support prices
As congestion at Chinese ports eases and effective vessel capacity increases, freight rates are coming under renewed downward pressure.
Drewry's World Container Index declined by 1% in the week ending 5 November, reflecting softer conditions across major East–West trades.
Carriers are seeking to introduce higher freight rates during November, particularly on Asia–Europe services, as they prepare for annual contract negotiations.
However, the growing availability of capacity may limit their ability to sustain increases. Between 9 November and 14 December, carriers have announced 46 blank sailings across the principal East–West trades, representing approximately 6% of planned departures.
Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean services account for half these cancellations.
With 94% of scheduled sailings expected to operate, the market appears relatively well supplied. Nevertheless, uneven vessel arrivals and continuing schedule adjustments mean that capacity availability can vary considerably between individual services and departure dates.
Suez Canal return introduces another congestion risk
The gradual restoration of container shipping services through the Suez Canal is gathering momentum after almost two years of widespread diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.
Approximately 60% of Asia–Europe container capacity is now using the Suez Canal, with the transition particularly advanced on Asia–Mediterranean services.
While this should ultimately improve transit times and network efficiency, the transition could still create significant short-term disruption. The greatest concern is that vessels returning through Suez could arrive at Northern European ports alongside ships still completing their longer Cape of Good Hope voyages.
This convergence could generate concentrated arrival peaks at Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges, Hamburg and other major European gateways.
Ports may then face simultaneous demands for berths, cranes, terminal storage, feeder connections and inland transport.
The result could be congestion, longer container dwell times and disrupted onward delivery schedules, even as advertised ocean transit times improve.
As carriers adjust their networks and return to shorter Suez routings, Metro is monitoring vessel schedules, Northern European port arrivals and onward transport connections to identify potential disruption before it affects customers.
More capacity does not automatically mean greater reliability, and shorter voyages do not guarantee faster delivery.
Contact Metro's ocean freight team to review your upcoming Asia–Europe shipments, assess alternative services and strengthen contingency arrangements as the market adjusts to changing vessel schedules and the return to Suez.
