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Effective capacity is tightening despite container fleet growth

Sep 2, 2026 |

Container shipping capacity continues to expand, but congestion, schedule disruption and longer delays are preventing a growing share of the global fleet from carrying cargo when and where shippers need it.

For cargo owners, the size of the global container fleet increasingly tells only part of the capacity story.

New vessels continue to enter service, but around 5% of global deep-sea capacity is currently being absorbed by vessel delays, equivalent to approximately 1.7 million TEU.

During the relatively stable years between 2011 and 2019, delays typically tied up around 2.2% of capacity. The difference between those figures means disruption alone is effectively removing around one million additional TEU from the market compared with historic norms.

That helps explain why significant fleet growth has not necessarily translated into abundant space or consistently softer market conditions.

Congestion is absorbing millions of TEU

The scale of current port congestion illustrates the problem.

By week 34, more than 4.3 million TEU was waiting to berth at container ports globally, equivalent to 12.6% of the 34.4 million TEU fleet.

In absolute terms, that exceeds the approximately four million TEU caught in port congestion during the 2022 pandemic peak. Today's fleet is considerably larger, however, so the proportion affected remains below the 15.7% recorded at that time.

East Asia is responsible for much of the latest pressure, with severe weather disrupting some of the world's busiest container gateways.

China disruption ripples through global schedules

Typhoon Dolphin demonstrates how quickly a local event can affect global capacity.

Between early and mid-August, the number of vessels queueing at Shanghai increased from 24 to 139, while Ningbo's queue rose from 11 to 77.

Carriers responded with port omissions and changes to vessel rotations as they attempted to recover schedules. Across Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantian, these measures are estimated to have removed almost 500,000 TEU of scheduled capacity from affected services.

Asia–Europe has been among the trades affected, with vessels skipping calls to recover schedules and accommodate accumulated cargo. Some services have faced waiting times of five to eight days at Shanghai's Yangshan terminal, with individual vessels experiencing even longer delays.

The impact continues after ports reopen

Clearing a vessel queue does not immediately restore capacity. Containers diverted from congested Chinese ports have been discharged or transhipped through alternative hubs, including Busan and Hong Kong. Returning this cargo to its intended destination requires additional feeder movements and handling.

Port omissions can also leave cargo waiting for subsequent sailings, while late vessels risk missing berthing windows at later ports.

Disruption therefore travels through the network. A weather event lasting several days can affect vessel rotations and cargo flows for weeks afterwards.

This is compounded by structurally weaker schedule performance. Global reliability remains around 60–65%, compared with the 70–80% commonly achieved before the pandemic, while average delays have increased from around three to four days to approximately five to five-and-a-half days.

More ships do not automatically mean more space

Global container supply continues to grow, but physical fleet size is only one part of the equation.

Congestion, longer voyages, port omissions, diversions and disrupted rotations determine how much capacity is actually available on individual trade lanes.

Further pressure could emerge from the Panama Canal, where tighter draught restrictions and reductions in transit availability during September threaten to constrain capacity, particularly on services connecting Asia with the US East Coast.

Meanwhile, firm charter demand suggests carriers are still seeking additional tonnage despite the expansion of the global fleet.

The apparent contradiction disappears when nominal capacity is separated from effective capacity. The industry may have more ships, but disruption determines how productively those ships can be deployed.

Usable capacity is what matters to shippers

For shippers, the important question is not how much capacity exists globally, but how much is available on the required trade lane, sailing and date.

When disruption absorbs millions of TEU, available space can tighten quickly. Sailings can be omitted, containers rolled and transit times extended even while headline fleet statistics suggest the market is well supplied.

That makes early visibility, carrier choice and alternative routing increasingly important to ocean freight planning.

Metro combines extensive carrier relationships with a global network and strong Asian capabilities to give shippers access to alternative sailings, gateways and routings when effective capacity tightens. 

With early market intelligence and joined-up origin and destination management, we can identify emerging constraints before they become critical and keep your cargo moving when disruption takes capacity out of the market.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director, to learn more. 

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India’s sourcing growth creates pressure at both ends of the supply chain

Sep 2, 2026 | , , , , , , , , ,

UK businesses sourcing from India face rising logistics costs before and after production, as more expensive Asian imports combine with tight westbound capacity and strong India–Europe demand.

India continues to strengthen its position as a manufacturing and sourcing alternative for UK and European businesses. But the cost of moving goods through the supply chains supporting that growth is rising.

The pressure starts well before finished products leave India. Many manufacturers rely on machinery, components, chemicals, electronics and other inputs imported from China and neighbouring Asian markets. Freight costs on those inbound routes have risen sharply, increasing the cost base for Indian production.

At the same time, strong exports are tightening India–Europe container capacity and pushing westbound freight costs higher.

For UK buyers, that creates a potential double freight squeeze, with logistics inflation entering the product cost upstream before another layer is added on the journey to Europe.

Asian imports into India become more expensive

The first pressure point is emerging on eastbound services into India.

During August, Shanghai–Nhava Sheva spot rates have almost doubled compared with July, while Shanghai–Chennai rates have increased by around 60%. Costs from other Asian origins, including Singapore, have also risen significantly.

Strong seasonal imports ahead of India's festival period are contributing to demand, while congestion at major Asian hubs has disrupted schedules and tightened available capacity.

For Indian importers, the impact extends beyond freight rates. Changing schedules and less predictable transit times make it harder to manage inbound inventory and maintain reliable production flows.

Higher freight feeds into manufacturing costs

The significance for UK buyers comes from China's deep integration into Indian manufacturing.

Rising transport costs for the raw materials and components feeding Indian factories may initially be absorbed through manufacturer margins. If elevated costs persist, however, some will inevitably feed into production costs and finished-product pricing.

That creates a supply-chain exposure that may be difficult to see when procurement decisions focus primarily on the factory price.

An Indian-made product can already contain significant logistics costs before it enters a container for its journey to the UK.

Strong exports tighten the westbound market

The second pressure point is India–Europe shipping.

Indian containerised exports to Europe reached an estimated 518,000 TEU during the first half of 2026, with stronger-than-expected demand creating a pronounced capacity squeeze.

Westbound rates increased again during August and are approaching levels last experienced around four years ago. Space has become increasingly difficult to secure, with some leading India–Europe services selling out several weeks ahead and additional spot capacity appearing only as carriers release allocations.

The problem is not simply growing demand. Available capacity has struggled to keep pace.

Blank sailings, congestion and rolled cargo at Nhava Sheva and Mundra are reducing effective space, while some capacity has been redirected towards growing Latin American flows using Indian ports for transhipment.

For cargo owners, guaranteed space can therefore command a premium, while less flexible shipments face greater rollover and delay risks.

Look beyond the supplier price

India's manufacturing scale and expanding trade relationships continue to make it an important sourcing market. But the changing freight environment reinforces the need to assess the complete landed cost of sourcing there.

A product assembled using Chinese or other Asian components may now carry substantially higher inbound logistics costs. Moving the finished goods from India to the UK then adds a second layer of freight inflation.

For lower-margin or freight-intensive products in particular, those combined costs could materially affect sourcing economics.

Timing matters too. With strong westbound bookings and constrained capacity, waiting for cheaper freight could leave importers competing for even tighter space.

Businesses can reduce that exposure by understanding upstream supply flows, consolidating shipments where appropriate and planning westbound capacity earlier.

Manage the whole supply chain, not just the final leg

The growing relationship between Chinese inputs, Indian manufacturing and European demand means these movements cannot always be managed effectively in isolation.

Metro can connect the complete Asia–India–UK supply chain, providing visibility from upstream suppliers through Indian production and onward to the UK. 

With extensive Indian based capabilities, global carrier relationships, consolidation and alternative routing options, we can identify where cost and capacity pressures are building and act before they reach your bottom line. EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director, to learn about protecting your landed cost from origin to destination.

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Transpacific capacity tightens as Panama restrictions reshape the market

Sep 2, 2026 | , ,

Strong US import demand, reduced vessel capacity and tighter Panama Canal restrictions are keeping transpacific shipping under pressure, with East Coast services facing particular constraints as September approaches.

The transpacific market remains significantly firmer than Asia–Europe, despite signs that the recent rise in spot rates may be levelling off.

After several weeks of increases, Shanghai–New York spot rates slipped 2% in the latest Drewry World Container Index, while Shanghai–Los Angeles remained flat. Freightos recorded a different picture, with East Coast rates rising 3% and West Coast rates 1%. 

The differing indices underline the uncertainty surrounding the market rather than signalling a clear reversal. Rates remain substantially above levels seen three months ago, supported by resilient demand, constrained capacity and growing operational pressure around the Panama Canal.

Peak season demand remains resilient

An unusually early transpacific peak began in late May as US importers accelerated shipments from Asia, initially in response to tariff uncertainty and subsequently supported by continued demand.

China–US volumes fell 12% in the first quarter before surging 22% in Q2, with much of that rebound concentrated in April and May. US import forecasts suggest volumes could remain relatively firm through September before easing in October. 

Capacity has tightened at the same time. August capacity fell 9% month on month on Asia–US East Coast services, while carriers have continued using blank sailings to manage supply.

Congestion at Asian ports following successive typhoons has added further pressure, disrupting schedules and reducing the effective capacity available to shippers.

Panama compounds the East Coast squeeze

The Panama Canal is emerging as another important factor for Asia–US trade.

From early September, lower permitted draughts and fewer daily transits are expected to restrict the amount of cargo vessels can carry through the canal. Analysis of July movements suggests around 45% of Neopanamax transits could be affected by the new draught limits, representing approximately 55% of nominal container capacity using the larger locks. 

Initially, this may mean vessels carrying less cargo rather than carriers withdrawing ships. However, fewer daily transit slots could increase queues and delays while reducing the effective capacity available to East Coast services.

If restrictions become more severe, carriers could divert some Asia–US East Coast services around the Cape of Good Hope. That would add approximately 30% to transit times and tie up vessels for longer, tightening capacity elsewhere in the network.

West Coast gateways could gain cargo

Panama restrictions may also change how importers route US-bound cargo.

Some Asia-origin shipments normally moving through the canal to East Coast gateways could switch to Los Angeles, Long Beach and other West Coast ports, followed by rail or intermodal transport inland.

US intermodal volumes are already increasing as shippers respond to tight truckload capacity and higher road freight costs. Domestic container volumes grew 7.4% year on year during the first half, while international container volumes returned to growth in July. 

Rail networks currently appear to have capacity to absorb additional traffic, although localised pressure is emerging at some ports and railheads. A sustained transfer of transpacific cargo towards the West Coast could increase pressure on terminal appointments, chassis availability and inland connections during September.

Elevated conditions may persist into September

The immediate outlook remains finely balanced.

Strong transpacific demand contrasts sharply with Asia–Europe, where rates have declined for seven consecutive weeks. On the Pacific, however, capacity management, Asian port congestion and Panama restrictions provide continuing support for the market.

The latest pause in rate growth may therefore prove temporary rather than marking the end of peak-season pressure.

For shippers, the more important issue is increasingly where usable capacity will be available. East Coast constraints could favour West Coast routings, but shifting cargo west creates different inland transport requirements and potential congestion risks.

Early booking, additional lead time and the ability to switch gateways, routings and inland modes will be increasingly important as these pressures develop.

NOTICE: Transatlantic carriers push for September rate increases

Carriers are seeking to strengthen westbound transatlantic rates in September, despite softer demand between Europe and North America.

North Europe–US volumes fell 2.6% year on year in July, following a 5.5% decline in June, while Mediterranean–US volumes dropped 1.9%. In response, carriers reduced Europe–North America capacity by almost 9% during August, with a further 9% reduction expected on North Europe services in September.

Several carriers have now introduced peak-season surcharges and general rate increases, alongside higher European inland fuel and intermodal charges. With demand providing limited support, their success will depend on capacity discipline and shipper acceptance.

Metro connects an extensive Asian network with established operations across the United States, giving shippers access to alternative gateways, routings and inland solutions as capacity shifts. 

By considering ocean, port and inland costs together, we can identify the route that protects your supply chain and total landed cost and move with the market when conditions change.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director.

Rhine low water levels

Falling Rhine levels put European supply chains under growing pressure

Aug 19, 2026 | , , ,

Record-low water levels on the Rhine are creating another significant challenge for European supply chains, restricting barge capacity, increasing transport costs and putting additional pressure on already constrained road and rail networks.

The Rhine is one of Europe's most important freight arteries, connecting Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges with industrial centres across Germany, France and Switzerland. Around 35% of containers moving between Rotterdam and their hinterland travel by inland waterway, making reliable barge operations an important part of the region's freight infrastructure.

Persistent heat and drought have pushed water levels to exceptional lows, particularly around Kaub in Germany, a critical point for navigation on the Middle and Upper Rhine. Conditions have deteriorated to the point where some operators have suspended bookings beyond Kaub and sections of the river have become extremely difficult for container traffic.

The immediate problem is not simply whether barges can sail. Lower water levels dramatically reduce the amount of cargo they can safely carry.

Capacity disappears as the Rhine falls

Water levels at key Rhine gauges have fallen as low as 7cm at critical points, severely restricting barge operations and the impact on effective capacity is dramatic. 

Some mid-sized container barges with a nominal capacity of around 300 TEU are reportedly able to carry only about 20% of their normal capacity, while larger barges offering around 400 TEU of capacity have been completely unable to navigate some river stretches.

That creates an unusual form of supply chain disruption. The physical infrastructure remains in place, but much of its freight capacity has effectively disappeared.

Costs are rising accordingly. Low-water surcharges on the most severely affected sections have reached €1,350 per TEU around Kaub and €895 per TEU around Cologne, adding 

potentially substantial costs to container movements into Germany and Central Europe.

The disruption also threatens cargo flows through Europe's two largest container gateways. Around 35% of containers moving between Rotterdam and its hinterland travel by inland waterway, illustrating the scale of the potential problem if barge capacity remains restricted.

If containers cannot move inland quickly enough, they can accumulate at terminals in Rotterdam and Antwerp, potentially transferring congestion from the Rhine back towards the deep-sea ports.

Road and rail cannot simply replace barges

Shippers are increasingly turning to road and rail, but neither mode has enough spare capacity to replace lost barge movements quickly.

The scale of the substitution challenge is significant. Moving the containerised cargo carried by one barge can require more than 200 trucks. Replicating barge capacity by road would therefore place considerable additional pressure on trucking networks while increasing cost, congestion and emissions.

Available capacity is already tightening. In the most constrained areas, securing a truck can reportedly take up to two weeks, while additional rail capacity can require as much as six weeks' advance notice.

Rail also faces infrastructure constraints. Major renovation work on the Troisdorf–Wiesbaden corridor is restricting capacity on an important freight connection between Germany's inland regions and its European seaport gateways, just as demand for alternatives to barge transport is increasing.

The additional pressure is now feeding directly into transport costs. From 20 August, new congestion surcharges are being applied to selected container movements from Rotterdam and Antwerp, including €44 per container for trucking and €50 per container for rail and combined rail-road movements to and from affected German and Alsace locations.

For shippers, low Rhine levels are therefore no longer simply an inland-waterway issue. They are increasing costs and reducing available capacity across barge, road and rail simultaneously, while extending lead times and increasing the risk of missed delivery windows.

Weather is becoming a global supply chain variable

Extreme weather is increasingly affecting freight networks across different regions and modes. European heatwaves and drought are restricting inland waterways, while typhoons have recently disrupted Chinese ports and contributed to container and vessel-space shortages. Drought and water-management measures are also restricting vessel loading through the Panama Canal.

These events may be thousands of miles apart, but their supply chain effects are remarkably similar: effective capacity falls, schedules become less reliable, alternative routes become congested and transport costs increase.

As Metro recently highlighted in its analysis of how climate is becoming one of the biggest supply chain risks, extreme low-water events on the Rhine have reportedly occurred more frequently during the past decade than in the preceding five decades.

Contingency planning can no longer focus solely on recovering from an exceptional event. Shippers increasingly need supply chains designed to accommodate weather-related disruption as an ongoing operational risk.

Recovery could create another bottleneck

Rainfall would improve the situation, but higher water levels would not produce an immediate return to normal operations.

Barges and equipment displaced by weeks of disruption need to return to their scheduled rotations. A rapid recovery could also result in vessels arriving simultaneously at Rotterdam and Antwerp, transferring congestion from the river back towards the ports.

Shippers therefore need to consider both the immediate disruption and the recovery period that follows it.

Metro builds resilience beyond the port

When a major transport artery loses capacity, waiting for conditions to improve is rarely enough. Shippers need visibility of the disruption, early access to alternative capacity and the ability to switch between barge, rail and road before those alternatives become constrained.

Metro works across the supply chain to identify vulnerabilities and develop contingency options around individual cargo flows. By considering port choice, inland routing, available capacity, lead times and total transport cost together, Metro can help customers protect deliveries when established routes come under pressure.

Weather may be increasingly unpredictable, but your response does not have to be. Metro helps build flexibility into your European supply chain, giving you the options to keep cargo moving when critical links cannot operate as planned.

To learn more, EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith today

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