Air cargo’s traditional summer slowdown has failed to significantly loosen the market, with resilient demand, constrained capacity and renewed growth on key ex-Asia lanes keeping pressure on space and pricing as autumn begins.
Global air cargo volumes were 6% higher year on year in August, following 5% growth in July. More recent data shows that momentum continuing into September, with worldwide chargeable weight in week 36 still 7% above the same period last year.
Asia remains central to that strength. High-tech exports, AI and data-centre equipment, manufacturing activity and e-commerce continue to support demand, while available lift has struggled to grow at the same pace.
The result is an ex-Asia market that is increasingly defined by individual origins and trade lanes rather than a single regional trend.
Capacity remains the critical constraint
Global air cargo capacity was flat year on year during August, pushing capacity utilisation three percentage points above August 2025 levels. Dedicated freighters are carrying much of the additional demand, with freighter traffic having increased almost 14% year on year in July.
Adding substantial new lift remains difficult. Delayed new aircraft deliveries and passenger-to-freighter conversion programmes are restricting expansion, while carriers have been quick to redeploy freighters towards stronger markets.
That flexibility became particularly visible following changes to European low-value import rules. Falling e-commerce traffic initially weakened China and Hong Kong–Europe volumes, prompting some freighter capacity to move towards the stronger transpacific market.
However, the European picture is now showing signs of stabilisation. China–Europe volumes returned to modest week-on-week growth during August, while Hong Kong–Europe traffic increased 6% in week 36, its third consecutive weekly rise. Mainland China volumes have also been growing by low single-digit percentages since early August.
This recovery is significant as the market moves beyond the summer period and towards the traditional fourth-quarter peak.
Ex-Asia pricing reflects a tighter market
Although global spot pricing has gradually eased from its earlier highs, it remained 24% above last year during August. The latest weekly figures also point to renewed upward pressure from Asia.
In week 36, Asia Pacific spot rates increased 3% week on week to Europe and 2% to the US. China and Thailand to Europe both rose 6%, while Taiwan increased 7%.
Across Asia Pacific as a whole, pricing to Europe stood 15% above last year, while rates to the US were 40% higher.
High-tech manufacturing hubs remain particularly firm. Recent year-on-year increases included around 25% from South Korea and Taiwan, 22% from Vietnam, 32% from Thailand and 42% from Malaysia.
The transpacific remains especially strong. AI-related equipment and other technology exports continue to support demand from Northeast and Southeast Asia, while China and Hong Kong volumes to the US have remained resilient despite significant changes to low-value import rules.
There are also signs that the initial shock from Europe's new e-commerce rules may be passing. China’s low-value exports to Europe fell sharply after the July changes, but the subsequent improvement in China and Hong Kong tonnage suggests the market is beginning to find a new balance.
That does not necessarily mean a conventional peak season is developing. Instead, shippers face a more fragmented market in which capacity can move quickly between corridors and individual origins can tighten independently.
Further pressure could come from fuel. Rising oil prices are increasing aviation fuel costs, creating the prospect of higher surcharges just as autumn demand begins to build.
For businesses moving time-sensitive cargo from Asia, the combination of resilient demand, limited capacity growth and rapidly changing trade-lane conditions makes early planning increasingly important.
Metro combines local expertise across Asia with global air freight buying power and real-time market intelligence to identify pressure before it reaches your supply chain.
Whether you need secured capacity, alternative gateways, flexible routings or support through the autumn peak, our air freight specialists can build the right solution around your priorities and keep critical cargo moving.
