The global ocean freight market is undergoing a period of transition in 2025, influenced by regulatory changes, shifting trade patterns, and evolving carrier alliances. While demand remains strong in key regions, rate volatility persists due to supply chain disruptions and excess capacity.

The ocean freight sector is experiencing considerable adjustments as carriers adapt to regulatory and economic shifts. The EU ETS expansion now covers 70% of maritime emissions, leading to higher surcharges and operational costs for carriers.

Supply/Demand
Capacity growth is projected to slow to 5% in 2025 after record vessel deliveries in 2024. However, supply chain disruptions persist due to global port congestion and ongoing Red Sea diversions are soaking up excess capacity.

The restructuring of major shipping alliances is further shaping the industry landscape, with the dissolution of 2M, the formation of the Premier Alliance by THE Alliance, and the launch of Gemini Cooperation in February 2025.

Proforma scheduled liner capacity on the Asia-North Europe trade is set to be reduced by around 11% once the transition to the new shipping alliance set-up is complete. The combined weekly capacity drop of some 28,000 TEU equates to a total reduction of 221,000 TEU across all services. However, the number of individual weekly sailings between Asia and North Europe is expected to increase from 26 (under the previous alliances and standalone services) to 28, potentially improving frequency and flexibility for shippers.

Global port congestion remains a pressing issue, particularly in China and vessel utilisation remains high, with only 0.2% of the global liner fleet currently idle. The industry is also witnessing an increase in blank sailings, with 47 announced through mid-April, affecting Transpacific and Asia-Europe trade routes. The Transpacific market, in particular, is experiencing notable disruptions, with 43% of blank sailings concentrated in this corridor.

Expectations that Red Sea diversions would ease, returning an estimated 2 million TEU to global circulation, were dampened over the weekend following missile exchanges between the US and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. MSC CEO Soren Toft stated, “Suez simply isn’t safe to transit at the moment, and there’s no immediate prospect of a return.” This continued instability may prolong disruptions and return pressure on rates.

Market
Meanwhile, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) has dropped 17% since January and despite strong cargo demand in select regions, the market remains vulnerable to downward pricing pressures.

Demand remains resilient but uneven, with North America and India seeing stronger performance, whereas Europe’s slower economic growth is weighing on export activity. Chinese exports have exceeded expectations, driven in part by early shipments ahead of potential tariff adjustments.

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) has reached its lowest level since January 2024 and while rates are below their pandemic-era peaks they are still 79% higher than pre-pandemic averages from 2019.

At Metro, our fixed-rate agreements on popular shipping routes provide a practical safeguard against rate volatility, offering predictable costs for effective budgeting. Whether you’re managing high-volume trade lanes or seeking greater stability for your supply chain, our tailored solutions can help you thrive in 2025.

To discover how Metro can strengthen your business and provide peace of mind, EMAIL our Managing Director, Andy Smith, today.