H1 2025: Six Developments Reshaping Global Trade

H1 2025: Six Developments Reshaping Global Trade

Aug 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The first half of 2025 has been one of the most turbulent periods for supply chains in recent memory. From renewed tariff wars to fresh geopolitical flashpoints, logistics professionals have had to contend with a constantly shifting landscape.

At the same time, structural challenges around skills, safety, and sustainability have continued to grow. Here we review six developments that defined H1 2025.

1. Tariffs return to the fore
The pause in US tariff escalation ended in August, with the White House reintroducing “reciprocal” tariffs that apply baseline duties of 10% to all countries and higher rates of 10–41% depending on origin. The UK sit at the low end, while Syria faces the steepest levels. Brazil has been singled out further, hit by an additional 40% levy. Canada also saw tariffs raised from 25% to 35% on certain goods, justified by Washington’s claim that Ottawa has not done enough to curb fentanyl flows.

The executive order applies from 7 August 2025, with a grace period allowing cargo already loaded onto vessels before that date to arrive until 5 October 2025. To add complexity, US Customs will also impose new fees on Chinese-built or operated vessels from 14 October, potentially forcing alliances such as the Ocean Alliance into costly fleet reshuffles. Carriers are already working through how to redeploy capacity to avoid penalties, with COSCO and OOCL particularly exposed.

2. New shipping alliances reshape networks
The recomposition of global shipping alliances in Q1 has reshaped carrier strategies. The launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd marked one of the most significant realignments in recent years, focused on achieving 90%+ schedule reliability. Shippers are already seeing more dependable services, but questions remain about whether premium pricing will follow.

Other alliances, particularly Ocean and THE Alliance (now Premier Alliance), are recalibrating networks, with competition sharpening across Asia–Europe and transpacific trades. For shippers, the alliance changes mean rethinking service contracts and adapting to new network structures that could endure for much of the decade.

3. Houthi attacks deepen Red Sea crisis
The Red Sea crisis, triggered by Houthi rebel attacks, has now stretched on for nearly two years. In July 2025 the threat escalated further with the sinking of the Magic Seas, a Greek-operated vessel targeted for its links to companies calling at Israeli ports. Analysis suggests that one in six vessels globally could now be considered threatened under the Houthis’ broad definition of violators.

For container lines, this effectively rules out a return to Suez Canal routings before 2026 — and possibly not until 2027. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds up to two weeks to Asia–Europe journeys, pushing up costs and insurance premiums, and putting additional strain on fleet capacity. The Red Sea instability has been a reminder of how localised conflicts can have global consequences for supply chains.

4. Logistics skills shortages persist
The UK continues to face a significant shortfall in logistics skills, with the Road Haulage Association estimating a deficit of around 50,000 HGV drivers. The ONS also reports 6,000 fewer courier and delivery drivers than the previous year. With 55% of HGV drivers aged between 50 and 65, the demographic imbalance remains a long-term concern.

Factors include reduced access to EU workers post-Brexit, poor industry perception, and limited uptake of government training schemes. Although the crisis is not as acute as during the height of the pandemic, the ageing workforce and lack of young entrants mean structural shortages will continue. Rising wage costs, recruitment struggles, and bottlenecks in road transport all add to the burden on UK supply chains.

5. EV shipping challenges raise alarm
The growth of electric vehicle (EV) trade has created new safety risks at sea. Several high-profile fires on car carriers have been linked to lithium-ion batteries, sparking concern among insurers, regulators, and shipowners. Insurers are pushing for tougher loading protocols, enhanced crew training, and more advanced fire suppression systems.

For supply chains, this adds cost and complexity to automotive logistics, with carriers facing higher insurance premiums and the need to retrofit vessels. It is also slowing the momentum of EV exports, just as demand for cleaner vehicles accelerates globally.

6. Sustainability regulations tighten
Sustainability regulation is reshaping procurement strategies. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is beginning to impact trade in carbon-intensive products such as steel, aluminium, and cement, with importers required to report embedded emissions.

At the same time, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is moving toward a tipping point. UK and EU mandates are pushing airlines to integrate SAF into their fuel mix, with new investments underway to scale production.

While tariffs and geopolitics grab headlines, sustainability is quietly becoming a decisive factor in supplier choice, cost structures, and long-term resilience planning. For many organisations, compliance with emissions and ESG frameworks is no longer optional but critical.

Outlook
H1 2025 has exposed the vulnerability of supply chains to political shocks, armed conflict, safety risks, and structural labour shortages. Tariffs, alliances, and attacks have disrupted networks, while long-term challenges around sustainability and skills remain unresolved.

The message for supply chain leaders is clear: resilience, agility, and visibility will be critical in the second half of 2025, as disruption becomes the new normal.

H1 2025 has underlined how vulnerable global supply chains have become and staying ahead demands visibility, expertise, and a trusted partner by your side.

Metro’s account management team works proactively with customers to anticipate risks, share insights, and design solutions that are resilient and adaptable to change.

Our expertise encompasses dangerous goods and lithium battery shipping, customs, and multimodal freight, backed by a strong people strategy that includes apprenticeships, engagement programmes, and our Great Place to Work certification.

We are also leading the way on sustainability. Metro has been carbon neutral for five years, pioneering the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while our MVT ECO platform helps businesses forecast, measure, and offset emissions across their global supply chains.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how Metro can build resilience into your supply chain.

Red Sea Return Scuttled by Houthi Vessel Sinking

Red Sea Return Scuttled by Houthi Vessel Sinking

Jul 22, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The deadly July 7 attack on the Eternity C cargo vessel by Yemen’s Houthi rebels marks one of the most severe escalations yet in the Red Sea shipping crisis, reinforcing the view that this vital trade artery will remain off-limits for carriers through 2025. 

The Red Sea, via the Suez Canal, typically handles 30% of global container trade, linking not only Asia and Europe but also acting as a vital transit point for goods moving between Asia and North America, the Mediterranean, and even parts of Africa and Latin America. 

With most container ships now rerouting via Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, what began in late 2023 as a regional security issue has become a global supply chain disruptor, sending shockwaves far beyond the Asia-Europe corridor.

The Global Supply Chain Butterfly Effect

Asia–North America East Coast
Goods from China, Southeast Asia, and India bound for the U.S. East Coast often transit the Suez Canal. Rerouting extends voyages by up to 14 days, tightening container availability, raising costs, and pressuring ports on both coasts to manage capacity mismatches.

Africa–Europe and Africa–Asia
African exporters, including agricultural and mineral suppliers, face longer, costlier routes to reach European and Asian markets, challenging businesses from cocoa traders in West Africa to cobalt miners in the DRC.

Middle East–Europe Energy
Beyond containerised cargo, 20% of global LNG trade and 30% of global oil flows pass through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions here drive up global energy prices, affecting industries and consumers worldwide, from European factories to Latin American fuel markets.

Global Shipping Networks
With more ships tied up on extended routes, the global pool of available vessels is effectively reduced, tightening capacity on other trades, including the transpacific (Asia–U.S. West Coast) and transatlantic (U.S.–Europe), even though they don’t pass through the Red Sea.

Industry Effect

Automotive: Impacting not just Europe, but also in North America, as Tier 1 suppliers depend on globally sourced components.

Retail & Fashion: Global brands with cross-regional supply chains face timing, cost, and margin pressures.

Food & Agriculture: Grain, rice, coffee, and fruit trades are experiencing higher freight costs, threatening price inflation in developing markets.

Electronics: Longer lead times impact consumer electronics and critical components like semiconductors.

What’s clear is that the Red Sea crisis is not just a regional challenge. It’s a global supply chain stress test, that will continue to demand resilience, agility, and innovation for some time.

Metro’s supply chain management expertise and advanced MVT technology help shippers adapt on the fly; rerouting cargo, shifting transport modes, and even switching suppliers with agility and precision. From high-level network redesign to SKU-level control, we empower you to overcome disruption with confidence. EMAIL Managing Director, Andy Smith, to learn more.

Middle East Air Freight Disruption Despite Partial Recovery

Middle East Air Freight Disruption Despite Partial Recovery

Jun 24, 2025 | , ,

Qatar Airways has resumed operations from Doha following a temporary airspace closure triggered by Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq. The reopening has offered some relief, but flight schedules remain heavily disrupted, and wider instability across the Middle East continues to affect air freight flows.

The recent hostilities briefly grounded flights from Doha and contributed to a fresh wave of cancellations across the region, just days after US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities escalated the conflict. Although a short-lived ceasefire between Iran and Israel allowed for a partial resumption of services, tensions have reignited, forcing airlines and cargo operators to remain cautious.

Qatari airspace reopened in the early hours, but Qatar Airways warned of significant delays as flights resumed and schedules were rebuilt. Meanwhile, Emirates SkyCargo confirmed it has begun uplifting additional fuel on flights from Dubai to allow for longer rerouting — a measure that could reduce payload and force the offloading of some shipments.

Despite these challenges, cargo operations in the region have proven relatively resilient. From Saturday to Monday, around 13,000 tonnes of air freight moved from the Middle East to Europe, only slightly down from early June levels. Capacity from Asia Pacific into the Middle East has even increased over the same period, climbing to 18,000 tonnes.

Airline Suspensions and Reroutes Continue
Passenger services, many of which carry belly-hold cargo, remain widely impacted. Airlines including British Airways, Air France KLM, Singapore Airlines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Air Canada, Finnair, and Air Astana have cancelled or suspended flights to key Gulf hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Riyadh. Flights to Israel, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria also remain suspended due to the continuing risk.

Flight tracking data confirms extensive rerouting around Iranian and Iraqi airspace. Empty corridors now dominate the skies over key parts of the Middle East, with many services opting for longer paths via Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or the Caspian region adding time, fuel cost, and operational complexity.

While the overall air freight network remains intact, the situation is highly volatile. The risk of sudden airspace closures, GPS interference, and further retaliatory strikes remains high, particularly for carriers linked to the United States. Capacity constraints, schedule delays, and routing inefficiencies may persist until regional tensions ease.

We’re actively monitoring events, adjusting routings, and working with trusted partners to safeguard your shipments. If your supply chain is exposed to disruption in the Middle East, EMAIL our managing director, Andrew Smith, for clear advice and fast solutions.

Court Ruling Challenges Trump’s Trade Strategy Amid Global Uncertainty

Court Ruling Challenges Trump’s Trade Strategy Amid Global Uncertainty

May 29, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A U.S. federal court has ruled that President Donald Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs are illegal — delivering what may prove to be a major blow to his trade policy agenda, or simply a temporary setback.

On May 28, 2025, the United States Court of International Trade determined that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing broad tariffs on imports from numerous countries. The court found that the administration’s justification did not meet the IEEPA’s requirement of an “unusual and extraordinary threat,” rendering the tariffs an improper use of executive power.

The three-judge panel unanimously held that the IEEPA does not authorise the president to unilaterally impose such sweeping tariffs, stressing the need for a clear mandate from Congress when it comes to major economic decisions. As a result, the court issued a permanent injunction against the tariffs and ordered U.S. Customs and Border Protection to stop collecting them.

The ruling requires that the tariffs be halted within 10 days. The Trump administration has announced plans to appeal, which could take the case to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

Implications for Trade Policy
This decision directly challenges a key pillar of Trump’s trade strategy, which has leaned heavily on tariffs to address trade imbalances and shield U.S. industries. It may also influence ongoing negotiations with key partners such as the European Union and the United Kingdom by casting doubt on the legal basis for unilateral U.S. tariff actions.

While the court invalidated the sweeping global tariffs introduced on April 2 — including the baseline 10% levy and “reciprocal” duties — it did not strike down the administration’s sector-specific tariffs on imports like steel and cars, which remain in force.

The ruling is expected to embolden critics of Trump’s tariff policy across corporate America, foreign capitals, and Capitol Hill. It also comes at a sensitive moment for the administration, which is working to finalise new trade deals after suspending many of the planned tariff hikes.

The legal setback introduces fresh uncertainty into an already volatile global trade landscape — and may ultimately reshape how domestic and international actors engage with U.S. trade policy in the months ahead.

Stay informed as the US tariff and trade landscape evolves. Go to our home page to subscribe to our eBulletin updates for expert insight on the rulings, appeals, and what it all means for your supply chain strategy.

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