Air freight enters the traditional peak-season build-up with a finely balanced market, as capacity reductions and resilient pricing create the potential for rapid tightening when Asian export demand accelerates.
The usual late-September surge may still be several weeks away, but UK importers have good reason to start planning now.
Asia–Europe demand softened during August, yet rates have shown little corresponding weakness. Airlines and freighter operators are adjusting capacity as cargo flows change, while higher fuel costs and stronger demand on alternative trade lanes are providing additional support.
That leaves limited spare capacity to absorb the traditional autumn increase – particularly if ocean freight disruption pushes urgent shipments towards air.
Softer demand is not delivering cheaper capacity
Asia Pacific–Europe chargeable weight fell 5% week on week and 14% year on year in week 33, continuing the softer trend evident since late June.
Changing e-commerce flows have contributed to the decline. China–Europe volumes were 8% lower year on year in week 32, while Hong Kong–Europe traffic fell 29%.
Despite that weakness, Asia Pacific–Europe spot rates remained flat in week 33 after rising 1% the previous week. China was particularly resilient, recording a 6% increase despite lower volumes.
The explanation lies partly on the supply side. Asia Pacific capacity contracted 2% in week 33 after declining 1% the previous week, limiting the downward pressure on rates.
Freighter deployment may tighten the market further. Stronger transpacific demand provides operators with an incentive to allocate aircraft towards the US, potentially reducing the capacity available for European cargo as peak season approaches.
China shows how quickly conditions can change
Recent disruption around Shanghai illustrates the vulnerability of available capacity.
Typhoon Dolphin caused more than 1,000 flight cancellations and contributed to an 8% weekly reduction in chargeable weight from Shanghai, while Shanghai–Europe volumes fell 7%.
The immediate disruption has eased, but severe weather and congestion across Chinese ocean gateways remain relevant to the air freight outlook. When container schedules become unreliable, urgent and time-sensitive cargo can quickly switch from ocean to air.
Even a relatively small modal shift can have a disproportionate effect on air freight capacity and pricing.
Golden Week could mark the turning point
The next significant test comes around China's Golden Week.
Factories traditionally accelerate production before the holiday, followed by another increase as operations resume and backlogs clear. October also brings the start of the main pre-Christmas replenishment cycle.
Demand then typically intensifies through November as retailers and e-commerce businesses prepare for Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas.
This year, however, the market enters that period with capacity already responding closely to demand. That could make the transition from today's relatively balanced conditions to a tighter market particularly rapid.
Fuel costs, severe weather, changing freighter deployment and disruption to ocean services provide additional variables.
The opportunity is before the peak
For shippers, softer August volumes could offer a useful planning window rather than a reason to wait for lower rates.
Businesses with visibility of their autumn requirements can secure allocations earlier, consider alternative origins and gateways, and decide which shipments genuinely require premium air services.
Booking ahead of cargo-ready dates will become increasingly important as demand builds, particularly from China and other major Asian export markets. Flexible routing can also provide valuable alternatives when individual gateways or direct services tighten.
The key consideration is not simply today's air freight rate, but the availability of the right capacity when cargo needs to move.
Metro combines extensive Asian origin coverage with global airline relationships, flexible routing and multiple service levels to keep UK supply chains moving when peak-season capacity tightens.
Share your autumn forecasts with Metro now and we can secure the capacity, routing and service strategy your cargo needs before the peak takes hold.
EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director.
