Container shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal is gradually increasing as major carriers test a return to the shorter Asia–Europe route, potentially signalling an important change for global supply chains.

But this is far from a return to normal. Recent deadly attacks demonstrate that security conditions remain volatile, while carriers are assessing individual sailings carefully and retaining the option to divert around the Cape of Good Hope at short notice.

For shippers, the potential benefits of shorter transit times must therefore be weighed against continuing routing uncertainty, war-risk insurance costs and the possibility that a broader return to Suez could create new congestion elsewhere in the network.

Carriers cautiously increase Suez transits

Maersk currently has four services passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in both directions each week, equivalent to around one-third of its normal service pattern. The carrier believes current intelligence and security assessments support a gradual return, although every sailing remains subject to an individual risk assessment.

Hapag-Lloyd is taking a similarly cautious approach and expects any increase in Suez services to happen progressively rather than through an immediate network-wide switch.

Other carriers are also adding capacity. Cosco has reopened bookings for Red Sea services and is preparing a Far East–Red Sea rotation through Bab el-Mandeb, while CMA CGM already operates several services using Suez. The Gemini network has also moved additional Asia–Mediterranean services back towards the Red Sea.

The operational attraction is significant. Restoring the Suez route reduces the additional sailing distance created by Cape diversions and could ultimately release vessel and container capacity into a market already experiencing equipment and space constraints.

That is particularly relevant following severe weather disruption in China. Typhoon Dolphin closed operations at Ningbo and Shanghai during 7–8 August, leaving more than 2.4 million TEU of capacity across networks affected by the shutdown and subsequent congestion. With backlogs potentially taking weeks to clear, shorter vessel rotations could help carriers make more effective use of constrained fleets and equipment.

However, recent traffic data highlights how quickly sentiment can change. Total Red Sea/Suez transits fell from 255 vessels to 222 in a week, as operators adopted a more cautious approach following the renewed Houthi attacks.

Security risk translates directly into costs

The biggest obstacle to a sustained return remains security. A deadly attack on a commercial vessel off Yemen in August reinforced the wider and continuing threat to shipping, while missile and drone attacks have maintained uncertainty around the Bab el-Mandeb corridor.

Carriers are consequently treating Red Sea routings as conditional rather than permanent. A deterioration in security could prompt individual sailings, entire services or wider networks to return to the Cape route with relatively little notice.

For cargo owners, that uncertainty has an important financial dimension. Standard marine cargo policies typically exclude war risks, meaning shipments entering designated high-risk areas may require specific endorsements. Current market indications suggest Red Sea war-risk cover can cost approximately 0.5% to more than 1% of insured cargo value per voyage. Carriers may also pass additional security and operating expenses to customers through specialised risk surcharges.

Insurance availability itself can vary according to the cargo, vessel and parties involved. Some underwriters may restrict or refuse particular risks, while routing changes need to be declared correctly to avoid potential coverage issues.

Shippers should therefore consider the total cost and risk of the routing, rather than assuming that a shorter Suez transit automatically produces a cheaper supply chain.

A return could create another wave of disruption

There is another complication. A large-scale return to Suez could initially increase congestion rather than improve schedule reliability.

Cape diversions have fundamentally altered vessel arrival patterns. Switching significant numbers of ships back to the shorter route would change those patterns again, potentially creating bunching as vessels reach European terminals earlier and in different sequences.

That is particularly important while European ports are already managing congestion and inland transport constraints that are heightened by limited barge availability. Carriers are therefore planning phased returns partly to avoid overwhelming terminals.

For shippers, the next phase of the Red Sea situation could consequently bring both opportunity and uncertainty. Shorter routings may improve transit times and eventually release capacity, but security assessments, insurance premiums, surcharges and rapidly changing schedules will remain important considerations.

Metro monitors carrier routings, security developments, insurance implications and schedule changes across the Red Sea, Suez and Cape alternatives, helping customers understand the true cost and operational impact of each option. With conditions capable of changing from one sailing to the next, talk to Metro before booking critical cargo so we can assess the routing, timing, cost and risk that best protect your supply chain.

To learn more, EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith today.