With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, crude oil can still exist within the region, but refined products, which includes marine fuel, jet fuel and diesel, can no longer move freely to key consumption markets, which has triggered a sharp divergence in pricing and availability across all modes.
For shippers, this creates a higher cost floor, as transport fuels are no longer moving in line with crude. Marine bunker, jet fuel and diesel each have their own supply chains and crack spreads (the margin between crude and refined products), and are now behaving independently of Brent. This is driving bunker-led cost pressure in ocean, jet fuel-driven inflation in air, and diesel-driven cost escalation in road.
Ocean freight: bunker costs reset the pricing floor
In ocean freight, bunker fuel has become the dominant cost driver. Asian fuel hubs, particularly Singapore, are experiencing significant pressure as rerouted vessels increase demand while supply remains constrained.
This has created a disconnect between traditional pricing mechanisms and real-time costs.
Emergency bunker surcharges are being applied across major trade lanes, while standard adjustment factors lag behind market conditions and may only catch up with current fuel inflation later in the year.
The result is a structurally higher cost base, with ocean rates now reflecting fuel volatility rather than underlying demand alone.
Air freight: jet fuel shortage tightens capacity
Air freight is facing the most acute fuel-driven pressure. Gulf refineries, which typically supply jet fuel to Europe and Asia, are unable to export at normal levels, creating a shortage of refined product.
This has driven a sharp increase in jet fuel prices, with crack spreads widening dramatically from around $16 per barrel pre-crisis to approximately $100 in some regions.
This regional price divergence means that Asia and Middle East jet fuel benchmarks sit substantially above North American levels, meaning that every kilo of freight uplifted is starting from a materially higher fuel cost base.
As a result, airlines are adjusting networks, reducing marginal capacity and prioritising fuel efficiency, tightening available uplift and sustaining elevated airfreight rates.
Road freight: diesel inflation feeds through to transport costs
Road freight is also seeing significant cost pressure, with diesel prices rising independently of crude due to refinery constraints and regional supply dynamics.
Fuel accounts for roughly 30% of total truck operating costs, meaning sustained diesel inflation is already feeding through into pricing.
At the same time, increased reliance on overland routes across the Middle East is adding further demand pressure, compounding both cost and capacity challenges.
What this means for shippers
- Expect fuel-driven cost volatility across all modes
- Plan for longer and less predictable transit times
- Build flexibility into routing and inventory strategies
- Monitor surcharge mechanisms
Fuel disruption, routing constraints and capacity pressure are now closely linked. Managing one without the others is no longer effective.
Metro works with customers to model alternative routes, balance mode selection and manage cost exposure in real time. If you are seeing rising costs, delays or uncertainty in your supply chain, EMAIL managing director, Andrew Smith, to secure the most effective solution for your cargo.
