Air freight volumes rebound and rates adjust post-peak

Air freight volumes rebound and rates adjust post-peak

Jan 21, 2026 | , , , , , ,

Average east-west spot freight rates strengthened into December as peak-season demand lifted pricing, and while they eased back over the year-end, early January data shows a sharp rebound in demand.

Outbound air freight rates from Asia rose firmly into December, reflecting year-end demand and sustained e-commerce flows. Month on month pricing on both the Asia–US and Asia–Europe lanes rose by the strongest monthly averages of the year.

Despite this seasonal lift, rates closed the year marginally below December 2024 levels, highlighting that the 2025 peak was solid but less aggressive than the year before.

Asia–Europe pricing has proved more resilient over the year than Asia–US, supported by e-commerce flows increasingly oriented towards European consumers rather than the US market.

January volumes surge as markets reopen

Following the normal year-end slowdown, global air cargo volumes rebounded strongly in the first full week of January. Worldwide tonnages rose by more than 25% week on week, reversing the sharp declines seen in the final weeks of December. Compared with the same period last year, chargeable weight ran around 5% higher, indicating a stronger underlying start to 2026.

This rebound was broad-based across all major origin regions except Africa. Asia Pacific remained the largest contributor in absolute terms, continuing a trend seen throughout 2025.

Capacity began to recover as freighter operators reinstated services scaled back after the peak. Freighter capacity rose by over 15% week on week in early January, although overall global capacity still remained around 7% below mid-December levels.

Even with supply returning fast, average rates remain slightly ahead of the same point last year, reinforcing that the market reset reflects seasonality rather than a structural downturn.

Asia outbound lanes lead volume growth

Year-on-year volume growth in early January was led by Asia Pacific origins, up around 8%, in line with the full-year growth rate recorded in 2025.

On Asia–US routes, volumes increased by around 10% year on year, driven mainly by Southeast Asia, while flows from China and Hong Kong remained broadly flat. This points to a more diversified Asia export base rather than a single-country surge.

Asia–Europe volumes grew even faster, up around 15% year on year, supported by stronger flows from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand, underlining Europe’s growing role as a destination market for Asian exports.

Beyond Asia, traffic from the Middle East and South Asia showed some of the strongest growth rates entering 2026, with double-digit year-on-year increases on both Europe- and US-bound lanes.

Securing lift and service predictability is about smart, proactive planning. Metro’s air freight team closely monitors capacity, fine-tunes routings and works with trusted carrier partners to keep cargo moving reliably and on time.

Metro’s digital platform adds confidence through live flight telemetry, delivering:
– Real-time aircraft position and route mapping
– Accurate departure and arrival confirmation
– Time-stamped milestones, updated as events unfold

This visibility means our customers can plan with certainty, optimise inventory and protect service levels—even as market conditions change.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to explore smarter, faster and more resilient air freight solutions powered by live data and long-standing carrier relationships.

Smart 2026 supply chains are being engineered for pressure

Smart 2026 supply chains are being engineered for pressure

Jan 7, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Supply chains are no longer judged on efficiency alone, in 2026 they will be expected to anticipate disruption and adapt at speed to actively support growth. The experience of the past year confirmed that stability is no longer a realistic planning assumption, but performance under pressure is.

Rather than a single crisis, 2025 delivered constant friction. Congestion resurfaced across ports and inland networks, capacity existed but was selectively deployed, and geopolitical and regulatory shifts altered trade flows long before any formal policy changes took effect. 

The result was a decisive shift in mindset: supply chains must be designed to operate in volatility, not merely recover from it.

That shift accelerates in 2026, as technology, resilience and sustainability converge to redefine how supply chains are planned, financed and executed.

Resilience becomes a competitive advantage

If 2025 proved anything, it was that capacity on paper does not guarantee performance in practice. Across ocean, air and road freight, service reliability was dictated by execution: blank sailings, schedule volatility and inland bottlenecks determined what actually moved.

In response, supply chain design is moving beyond simple continuity planning toward resilience, where networks are designed to adapt and improve under stress.

Common characteristics include:

  • Multi-route and multimodal playbooks rather than single-lane optimisation
  • Near-shoring and regionalisation to shorten lead times and reduce exposure
  • Centralised planning paired with regional execution for faster response

These approaches reflect a broader shift away from cost-minimisation toward risk-adjusted performance.

Warehousing becomes a strategic control point

Warehousing emerged as one of the most critical differentiators in 2025 — a trend that intensifies in 2026. With transit times less predictable and congestion harder to avoid, inventory positioning and fulfilment speed have become central to supply-chain resilience.

High-performing shippers increasingly treat warehousing as an active control layer, not passive storage. Key developments include:

  • Greater use of strategically located facilities to buffer disruption
  • Tighter integration between warehousing, transport and customs planning
  • Investment in automation and robotics that flex with demand and seasonality

This is particularly important as omnichannel and e-commerce pressures continue to grow, demanding seamless support for direct-to-consumer, BOPIS and rapid fulfilment models alongside traditional B2B flows.

From reactive networks to intelligent systems

One of the most significant changes heading into 2026 is the role of technology within supply chains. What began as analytical support is now moving into operational control.

AI-enabled tools are increasingly embedded across planning, procurement, inventory management and risk assessment, enabling supply chains to:

  • Anticipate disruption through predictive insights
  • Optimise routing, inventory and capacity decisions in near real time
  • Coordinate responses across multiple functions and geographies

As these systems become more connected, cybersecurity and data governance also rise sharply in importance. Protecting sensitive operational, commercial and customs data is now a core supply-chain requirement, not an IT afterthought.

Data quality, skills and execution define winners

Technology alone is not enough. The past year also highlighted a widening gap between organisations that could convert insight into action and those constrained by fragmented systems and poor data quality.

In 2026, competitive advantage depends on:

  • Clean, trusted and consistent data across logistics, customs and finance
  • Integrated platforms rather than disconnected tools
  • Teams with the skills to manage AI-driven, data-rich operations

Workforce transformation is therefore as important as digital investment. Roles are evolving toward data analytics, systems oversight and exception management, requiring targeted up-skilling to unlock value from new technologies.

Sustainability and compliance move into the operating core

Environmental and regulatory pressures are no longer peripheral considerations. Carbon pricing, emissions transparency, stricter customs enforcement and evolving trade rules are now shaping routing, mode selection and inventory strategy.

For most shippers, progress in 2026 will come less from premium “green” options and more from practical levers:

  • Smarter planning and consolidation
  • Modal optimisation and regionalisation
  • Stronger traceability and data governance

Sustainability and compliance have become operational constraints — inseparable from cost, resilience and service performance.

Designing supply chains that perform under pressure

Taken together, the direction of travel for 2026 is clear. Supply chains are being rebuilt as intelligent, integrated systems — shifting from reactive cost centres to strategic growth engines.

The most resilient networks are those that:

  • Integrate finance, procurement, logistics and technology decisions
  • Combine centralised control with regional agility
  • Invest equally in data, platforms, people and process

The objective is not to eliminate disruption, but to design networks that continue to perform when conditions are uncertain.

At Metro, this same mindset underpins how supply chains are assessed and supported. Stress-testing assumptions, strengthening visibility and applying execution-focused logistics, warehousing and transport strategies. In 2026, the differentiator will not be avoiding disruption, but owning a supply chain designed to operate through it.

Continued Airfreight Growth Amid Emerging Challenges

Continued Airfreight Growth Amid Emerging Challenges

Nov 6, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global air freight markets have continued to post positive year-on-year growth through September and October, reinforced by stronger than anticipated build up to peak season volumes, but recent indicators point to a moderating pace and emerging challenges that merit close attention.

While recent data points to a slowdown in momentum, overall performance remains solid, underpinned by stable demand, improved belly capacity and expanding connectivity on Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific routes.

September: Stronger Demand and Broad-Based Recovery

According to IATA’s latest data, global air cargo demand rose nearly 3% year-on-year in September, with international volumes up 3.2%. Capacity grew by roughly 3%, maintaining a healthy balance between supply and demand. The Asia-Pacific region led the expansion with a 6.8% increase in volumes, while Europe recorded a 2.5% rise and Africa posted double-digit growth.

Growth was especially strong on the Europe–Asia (up over 12%) and 10% up within Asia corridors, reflecting continued confidence among exporters and manufacturers leveraging airfreight for time-sensitive and high-value cargo. With global manufacturing activity steadying and cross-border trade recovering, September marked one of the most stable months of the year for international air logistics.

October: Consistent Throughput Amid Changing Conditions

Preliminary October data shows global air cargo volumes continuing to rise (around 4% higher than last year) indicating that demand remains robust heading into the traditional year-end peak. Industry analysts note that the pace of expansion is easing slightly as the market adjusts to higher passenger aircraft capacity and shifting economic conditions, but the overall picture remains positive.

Regional patterns are mixed: Asia continues to drive growth, supported by strong eCommerce flows and resilient intra-regional trade, while the transatlantic market remains steady. Importantly, network connectivity and schedule reliability have improved further, helping shippers achieve greater predictability and shorter transit times across major gateways.

Outlook: Stable, Predictable and Customer-Focused

While the pace of growth is slowing, there are reasons for optimism, including sustained peak season volumes, robust growth across key Asian and African corridors, and ongoing demand from eCommerce and modal shifts due to ocean shipping disruption.

The industry faces headwinds from weakening rate trends and demand imbalances, but steady year-on-year increases, even as momentum tapers, position air freight for a resilient conclusion to 2025.

Overall, air cargo remains on a positive trajectory, delivering growth despite moderating demand and evolving market challenges, with adaptability and strategic planning key for stakeholders navigating this dynamic landscape.

With demand steady and networks evolving, securing lift and predictability is all about smart planning. Metro’s air team proactively monitors capacity, fine-tunes routings, and works with trusted carrier partners to keep your cargo moving—reliably and on time.

Our platform adds real-time confidence with flight telemetry that delivers:

  • Live aircraft position and route mapping
  • Accurate departure/arrival confirmation
  • Time-stamped milestones, updated in real time

Plan with certainty, optimise inventory, and protect service levels—even when conditions change.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to explore smarter, faster, and more resilient air-freight solutions powered by live data and long-standing carrier relationships.

Shanghai-Hongqiao-Airport

Asia Air and Ocean Rates Edge Higher — For Now

Oct 29, 2025 | ,

After months of volatility and gradual rate decline, airfreight rates on key Asia–Europe and trans-Pacific lanes are climbing as capacity tightens ahead of a softer-than-usual peak season, while ocean carriers are seeing container spot rates rebound for a second consecutive week thanks to blank sailings and new general rate increases (GRIs).

Although the recovery is uneven, the long-running rate slide has paused, with carriers regaining short-term leverage and shippers facing a more cautious pricing environment. For importers in the US and UK, the message is clear: after months of relative calm, both air and sea markets are entering a phase of firmer pricing, with time-sensitive shippers under growing pressure to book early or lock in space as Q4 unfolds.

Airfreight: Rates Rising Despite a Muted Peak

Airfreight from Asia to Europe and the US is once again trending upward. Average spot rates from key Chinese gateways to Europe rose by more than 13% over the past two weeks, as exporters and forwarders competed for available space.

Despite the uptick, industry forecasts point to a “peak-less” Q4, with no major surge. For now, rates are rising gradually rather than sharply, with seasonal demand keeping the market balanced rather than overheated.

Time-sensitive shipments should be booked early to secure space and mitigate cost spikes. Those with flexible lead times can expect modestly higher pricing but less risk of severe congestion compared with previous years.

Ocean Freight: Carriers Regain Leverage as Rates Rebound

On the ocean side, spot container rates from Asia to Europe and North America have recorded their second consecutive weekly increase, driven by a wave of blanked sailings and mid-month GRIs. Analysts have tracked 93 cancelled voyages in October, as carriers pulled capacity to halt a 17-week rate slide earlier in the year.

The moves seem to have succeeded in stabilising pricing and restoring some balance to supply and demand. However, with the 2026 contract season approaching, shippers should expect more assertive carrier tactics, including the use of temporary GRIs and peak season surcharges to strengthen negotiating positions ahead of annual rate renewals.

Short-Term Outlook: A Firmer but Fragmented Market

  • Book early, particularly for premium cargo. Both air and sea carriers are tightening availability, and last-minute bookings may face higher costs or restricted options.
  • Expect rate volatility rather than steep increases. Demand is improving but not spiking, suggesting moderate and temporary rate rises through year-end.
  • Contract carefully. US and UK importers negotiating 2026 contracts should balance the current uptick in rates against the likelihood of stabilisation by Q1 next year.
  • Monitor capacity and scheduling. Blanked sailings, port disruptions and reduced belly capacity will remain the key short-term risk factors.

Metro’s market specialists continuously monitor rate movements, carrier capacity and contract trends across Asia–Europe and trans-Pacific trade lanes.

If you’re reviewing 2026 contracts, weighing modal choices or facing urgent uplift challenges, our team can help you secure competitive pricing and reliable space.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director to discuss short-term options and long-term strategies for your Asia supply chain

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