Cautious CNY trans-Pacific surge

Cautious CNY trans-Pacific surge

Jan 21, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

The trans-Pacific sea freight market is entering 2026 with pre-Chinese New Year volumes rising earlier than usual, spot rates climbing sharply and carriers leaning on capacity discipline to manage risk.

Despite Chinese New Year falling later than usual this year, shipment activity has moved forward, with volumes building three to four weeks earlier than the historical pattern. Import bookings from Asia to North America strengthened through December and into early January, marking the first month-on-month increase in six months.

According to the National Retail Federation, this uplift reflects a brief pre-holiday bump rather than a sustained restocking cycle. The organisation expects imports to soften again after Chinese New Year, in line with the usual post-holiday retail lull.

Forecasts for the US West Coast gateway show import volumes reaching a short-term high in early January, with weekly throughput at levels associated with a solid operating week. Volumes are then expected to ease back over the following weeks into a more typical seasonal lull, before recovering again from mid-February as cargo loaded just ahead of factory shutdowns arrives.

This pattern reinforces the view that the current lift is driven by timing rather than a fundamental demand shift.

Blank sailings shape the market response

Carrier behaviour has been decisive. In the five-week window from weeks 04 to 08, carriers have announced 68 blank sailings from approximately 698 scheduled departures from Asia, equating to around 10% of planned capacity being withdrawn.

Blankings are heavily concentrated on the trans-Pacific eastbound trade, which accounts for 47% of all announced cancellations. This targeted withdrawal has allowed carriers to manage utilisation closely, supporting pricing without widespread disruption to schedules.

Against this backdrop, spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast have increased by more than 40% over the past four weeks, with East Coast pricing up by around one-third over the same period. These gains follow a period of relatively muted demand and reflect a combination of seasonal lift and disciplined capacity management rather than space shortages.

Importantly, recent general rate increase attempts have shown limited staying power, indicating that while carriers have succeeded in lifting the rate floor, pricing remains sensitive to demand signals. The current rate environment is nevertheless viewed as sufficient to underpin upcoming service contract negotiations, with spot levels sitting comfortably above existing contract benchmarks.

Demand remains measured

Despite the visible rate movement, inventory indicators suggest a restrained demand environment. Importers are largely shipping against existing orders rather than aggressively pulling forward inventory. Inventory growth has slowed, and fourth-quarter volumes were slightly lower year on year, reflecting the unusually strong import levels seen in early 2025.

Looking ahead, expectations centre on a modest improvement rather than a repeat of last year’s surge. Trade growth forecasts for 2026 point to low single-digit expansion, consistent with a market returning to more traditional seasonal peaks and troughs.

With strategic capacity management and long-established ocean carrier relationships, Metro is helping customers secure space, optimise rates and keep high-priority cargo moving across key trans-Pacific lanes. As blank sailings and new rate initiatives reshape the market, proactive planning and flexible routing have never been more important.

Metro’s growing local presence in the United States further strengthens this approach, giving shippers on-the-ground support, closer carrier engagement and greater control across Asia–US supply chains.
https://metro.global/news/metro-global-usa-building-momentum-in-a-key-market/

If your business depends on reliable Asia–US trade flows, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to explore how expert guidance, tailored solutions and strong carrier partnerships can keep your supply chain agile and cost-effective—whatever the market brings.

Disciplined capacity management shaping CNY sea freight

Disciplined capacity management shaping CNY sea freight

Jan 21, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

As Chinese New Year approaches, sea freight markets from Asia to Europe and the United States are being shaped less by price competition and more by carrier control.

This year’s seasonal peak has arrived earlier than normal, with demand pulled forward and capacity actively withdrawn to protect network balance. While spot rates have eased after a brief pre-holiday lift, this is a short-term, seasonal adjustment rather than a shift in market fundamentals.

Seasonal patterns are moving forward

Historic Chinese New Year patterns place rate peaks two to four weeks before factory shutdowns. This year, those peaks have arrived earlier across all major east–west lanes.

On Asia–Europe routes, rate momentum has advanced by around two weeks, while trans-Pacific trades are peaking three to four weeks ahead of normal.

This shift reflects early shipping activity as exporters accelerated cargo flows into January, compressing the traditional pre-CNY cycle and bringing forward rate support.

Targeted blank sailings tighten supply

Carrier response has been swift and highly targeted. In the five-week window from weeks 04 to 08, carriers have announced 68 blank sailings from approximately 698 scheduled departures, equating to around 10% of planned capacity being withdrawn.

Blankings are concentrated where pressure is greatest:

– 47% on trans-Pacific eastbound services
– 38% on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean routes
– 15% on transatlantic westbound services

Despite these cancellations, around 90% of sailings remain scheduled to operate, underlining that capacity management is selective rather than disruptive.

After six consecutive weeks of gains on Asia–Europe trades leading into a seasonal mini-peak, spot freight rates now sit below early-2025 highs, reinforcing that recent movements reflect timing effects rather than a weakening market.

Reliability and disruption remain constraints

Operational performance continues to limit flexibility. Global on-time performance stands at 47%, down two percentage points month on month, with reliability slipping on both trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe routes.

Winter weather disruption in Europe and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty around key maritime corridors are adding further unpredictability to schedules.

As the market moves through Chinese New Year and into the post-holiday reset, carriers retain the tools to rebalance supply quickly, meaning any near-term easing should be viewed as temporary rather than structural.

Metro’s sea freight team is already modelling Jan/Feb blank sailings and CNY rush patterns, so we can secure space, optimise routings and build contingency plans around your specific flows.

By sharing your forecasts and critical SKUs early, we can ring-fence capacity, minimise disruption and shield you as far as possible from threatened GRIs and last-minute surcharges.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to arrange a strategic review of your ex-Asia shipping patterns and lock in the resilience you need for CNY 2026 and beyond.

Asia–Europe peak season meets Chinese New Year

Asia–Europe peak season meets Chinese New Year

Jan 7, 2026 | , , , , , , , ,

As the Asia–Europe trade moves deeper into peak season, Chinese New Year (CNY) is already reshaping pricing, capacity and execution risk. What was once a predictable seasonal slowdown has become a compressed, high-impact period where demand surges, capacity is tightly managed and disruption risks escalate quickly.

With carriers reporting strong bookings through December, into January and expectations that volumes could remain firm into February, the traditional pre-CNY rush is well underway. 

Although Chinese New Year officially begins on 17 February, with public holidays running from 15 to 23 February, its impact is felt weeks earlier as factories slow production and exporters pull cargo forward.

For Asia–Europe shippers, this creates a narrow and volatile planning window rather than a clearly defined seasonal pause.

Demand strength keeps rates elevated

Underlying demand on the Asia–Europe trade remains robust. Volumes reached nearly 22 million teu by the end of October, representing 8.6% year-on-year growth, giving carriers confidence to defend pricing as peak season converges with CNY planning.

This strength has translated into a fresh round of pricing actions at the start of the year. Peak season surcharges (PSS) and higher freight-all-kinds (FAK) levels are being used to reinforce rate floors as space tightens.

Market benchmarks reflect this momentum. Ahead of Christmas, Drewry’s World Container Index showed:

  • Shanghai–Genoa up 10%
  • Shanghai–Rotterdam up 8%, marking a third consecutive week of gains

Carrier initiatives followed quickly:

  • Maersk introduced a $1,500 per 40ft PSS on Asia–Mediterranean shipments from 5 January
  • CMA CGM applied a $250 per teu PSS on Asia–North Europe alongside new FAK rates from 1 January
  • MSC set new FAK levels of $3,700 per 40ft to North Europe and $5,500 per 40ft to the Mediterranean

Rates remain relatively steady heading into CNY, supported less by demand and disciplined capacity control.

Capacity front-loading raises execution risk

As factories prepare to slow production, carriers are once again turning to blanked sailings to protect utilisation. However, the way capacity is being managed this year marks a clear break from historical patterns.

Analysis from Sea-Intelligence shows that carriers have increasingly front-loaded capacity into late Q4 and early Q1, followed by plans for sharp withdrawals as the holiday approaches. This creates short bursts of intense volume flow, followed by sudden capacity gaps.

For shippers, this shift materially increases the risk of:

  • Rolled cargo
  • Missed cut-offs
  • Port and inland congestion during compressed loading windows

On Asia–Europe specifically:

  • Asia–North Europe has seen the largest absolute capacity expansion, with deployment projected to surge nearly 50% above baseline, reflecting aggressive inventory pull-forward into Europe
  • Asia–Mediterranean shows the greatest percentage volatility, with peak capacity more than 60% above baseline, highlighting heightened disruption risk even on secondary trades

Rather than smoothing demand, blank sailings are now amplifying disruption once volumes peak.

What happens after the holiday?

In the immediate run-up to CNY, pricing is likely to remain supported by strong demand, PSS and constrained capacity. The greater uncertainty lies in the post-holiday period.

Once factories reopen and deferred cargo returns to the market, rate volatility is likely to increase — particularly if demand rebounds faster than carriers reinstate withdrawn sailings. This could result in sudden space shortages, uneven service recovery and renewed congestion on Asia–Europe lanes.

For shippers, the real risk is not confined to the holiday itself, but to the broader six-to-eight-week window around CNY, when schedules, capacity and pricing are most fluid.

Planning priorities for Asia–Europe shippers

As peak season and CNY converge, successful shippers are focusing on:

  • Securing space early rather than chasing spot availability
  • Building contingency routing and sailing options
  • Allowing extra buffer in cut-offs and inland planning
  • Treating CNY as an extended risk period, not a single event

If you are planning ocean freight on the Asia–Europe trade through Chinese New Year and into 2026, Metro’s teams can help you secure space, manage blank-sailing risk and adapt your shipping strategy — so you stay ahead of disruption rather than reacting to it.

Smart 2026 supply chains are being engineered for pressure

Smart 2026 supply chains are being engineered for pressure

Jan 7, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Supply chains are no longer judged on efficiency alone, in 2026 they will be expected to anticipate disruption and adapt at speed to actively support growth. The experience of the past year confirmed that stability is no longer a realistic planning assumption, but performance under pressure is.

Rather than a single crisis, 2025 delivered constant friction. Congestion resurfaced across ports and inland networks, capacity existed but was selectively deployed, and geopolitical and regulatory shifts altered trade flows long before any formal policy changes took effect. 

The result was a decisive shift in mindset: supply chains must be designed to operate in volatility, not merely recover from it.

That shift accelerates in 2026, as technology, resilience and sustainability converge to redefine how supply chains are planned, financed and executed.

Resilience becomes a competitive advantage

If 2025 proved anything, it was that capacity on paper does not guarantee performance in practice. Across ocean, air and road freight, service reliability was dictated by execution: blank sailings, schedule volatility and inland bottlenecks determined what actually moved.

In response, supply chain design is moving beyond simple continuity planning toward resilience, where networks are designed to adapt and improve under stress.

Common characteristics include:

  • Multi-route and multimodal playbooks rather than single-lane optimisation
  • Near-shoring and regionalisation to shorten lead times and reduce exposure
  • Centralised planning paired with regional execution for faster response

These approaches reflect a broader shift away from cost-minimisation toward risk-adjusted performance.

Warehousing becomes a strategic control point

Warehousing emerged as one of the most critical differentiators in 2025 — a trend that intensifies in 2026. With transit times less predictable and congestion harder to avoid, inventory positioning and fulfilment speed have become central to supply-chain resilience.

High-performing shippers increasingly treat warehousing as an active control layer, not passive storage. Key developments include:

  • Greater use of strategically located facilities to buffer disruption
  • Tighter integration between warehousing, transport and customs planning
  • Investment in automation and robotics that flex with demand and seasonality

This is particularly important as omnichannel and e-commerce pressures continue to grow, demanding seamless support for direct-to-consumer, BOPIS and rapid fulfilment models alongside traditional B2B flows.

From reactive networks to intelligent systems

One of the most significant changes heading into 2026 is the role of technology within supply chains. What began as analytical support is now moving into operational control.

AI-enabled tools are increasingly embedded across planning, procurement, inventory management and risk assessment, enabling supply chains to:

  • Anticipate disruption through predictive insights
  • Optimise routing, inventory and capacity decisions in near real time
  • Coordinate responses across multiple functions and geographies

As these systems become more connected, cybersecurity and data governance also rise sharply in importance. Protecting sensitive operational, commercial and customs data is now a core supply-chain requirement, not an IT afterthought.

Data quality, skills and execution define winners

Technology alone is not enough. The past year also highlighted a widening gap between organisations that could convert insight into action and those constrained by fragmented systems and poor data quality.

In 2026, competitive advantage depends on:

  • Clean, trusted and consistent data across logistics, customs and finance
  • Integrated platforms rather than disconnected tools
  • Teams with the skills to manage AI-driven, data-rich operations

Workforce transformation is therefore as important as digital investment. Roles are evolving toward data analytics, systems oversight and exception management, requiring targeted up-skilling to unlock value from new technologies.

Sustainability and compliance move into the operating core

Environmental and regulatory pressures are no longer peripheral considerations. Carbon pricing, emissions transparency, stricter customs enforcement and evolving trade rules are now shaping routing, mode selection and inventory strategy.

For most shippers, progress in 2026 will come less from premium “green” options and more from practical levers:

  • Smarter planning and consolidation
  • Modal optimisation and regionalisation
  • Stronger traceability and data governance

Sustainability and compliance have become operational constraints — inseparable from cost, resilience and service performance.

Designing supply chains that perform under pressure

Taken together, the direction of travel for 2026 is clear. Supply chains are being rebuilt as intelligent, integrated systems — shifting from reactive cost centres to strategic growth engines.

The most resilient networks are those that:

  • Integrate finance, procurement, logistics and technology decisions
  • Combine centralised control with regional agility
  • Invest equally in data, platforms, people and process

The objective is not to eliminate disruption, but to design networks that continue to perform when conditions are uncertain.

At Metro, this same mindset underpins how supply chains are assessed and supported. Stress-testing assumptions, strengthening visibility and applying execution-focused logistics, warehousing and transport strategies. In 2026, the differentiator will not be avoiding disruption, but owning a supply chain designed to operate through it.

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