Cautious CNY trans-Pacific surge

Cautious CNY trans-Pacific surge

Jan 21, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

The trans-Pacific sea freight market is entering 2026 with pre-Chinese New Year volumes rising earlier than usual, spot rates climbing sharply and carriers leaning on capacity discipline to manage risk.

Despite Chinese New Year falling later than usual this year, shipment activity has moved forward, with volumes building three to four weeks earlier than the historical pattern. Import bookings from Asia to North America strengthened through December and into early January, marking the first month-on-month increase in six months.

According to the National Retail Federation, this uplift reflects a brief pre-holiday bump rather than a sustained restocking cycle. The organisation expects imports to soften again after Chinese New Year, in line with the usual post-holiday retail lull.

Forecasts for the US West Coast gateway show import volumes reaching a short-term high in early January, with weekly throughput at levels associated with a solid operating week. Volumes are then expected to ease back over the following weeks into a more typical seasonal lull, before recovering again from mid-February as cargo loaded just ahead of factory shutdowns arrives.

This pattern reinforces the view that the current lift is driven by timing rather than a fundamental demand shift.

Blank sailings shape the market response

Carrier behaviour has been decisive. In the five-week window from weeks 04 to 08, carriers have announced 68 blank sailings from approximately 698 scheduled departures from Asia, equating to around 10% of planned capacity being withdrawn.

Blankings are heavily concentrated on the trans-Pacific eastbound trade, which accounts for 47% of all announced cancellations. This targeted withdrawal has allowed carriers to manage utilisation closely, supporting pricing without widespread disruption to schedules.

Against this backdrop, spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast have increased by more than 40% over the past four weeks, with East Coast pricing up by around one-third over the same period. These gains follow a period of relatively muted demand and reflect a combination of seasonal lift and disciplined capacity management rather than space shortages.

Importantly, recent general rate increase attempts have shown limited staying power, indicating that while carriers have succeeded in lifting the rate floor, pricing remains sensitive to demand signals. The current rate environment is nevertheless viewed as sufficient to underpin upcoming service contract negotiations, with spot levels sitting comfortably above existing contract benchmarks.

Demand remains measured

Despite the visible rate movement, inventory indicators suggest a restrained demand environment. Importers are largely shipping against existing orders rather than aggressively pulling forward inventory. Inventory growth has slowed, and fourth-quarter volumes were slightly lower year on year, reflecting the unusually strong import levels seen in early 2025.

Looking ahead, expectations centre on a modest improvement rather than a repeat of last year’s surge. Trade growth forecasts for 2026 point to low single-digit expansion, consistent with a market returning to more traditional seasonal peaks and troughs.

With strategic capacity management and long-established ocean carrier relationships, Metro is helping customers secure space, optimise rates and keep high-priority cargo moving across key trans-Pacific lanes. As blank sailings and new rate initiatives reshape the market, proactive planning and flexible routing have never been more important.

Metro’s growing local presence in the United States further strengthens this approach, giving shippers on-the-ground support, closer carrier engagement and greater control across Asia–US supply chains.
https://metro.global/news/metro-global-usa-building-momentum-in-a-key-market/

If your business depends on reliable Asia–US trade flows, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to explore how expert guidance, tailored solutions and strong carrier partnerships can keep your supply chain agile and cost-effective—whatever the market brings.

Disciplined capacity management shaping CNY sea freight

Disciplined capacity management shaping CNY sea freight

Jan 21, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

As Chinese New Year approaches, sea freight markets from Asia to Europe and the United States are being shaped less by price competition and more by carrier control.

This year’s seasonal peak has arrived earlier than normal, with demand pulled forward and capacity actively withdrawn to protect network balance. While spot rates have eased after a brief pre-holiday lift, this is a short-term, seasonal adjustment rather than a shift in market fundamentals.

Seasonal patterns are moving forward

Historic Chinese New Year patterns place rate peaks two to four weeks before factory shutdowns. This year, those peaks have arrived earlier across all major east–west lanes.

On Asia–Europe routes, rate momentum has advanced by around two weeks, while trans-Pacific trades are peaking three to four weeks ahead of normal.

This shift reflects early shipping activity as exporters accelerated cargo flows into January, compressing the traditional pre-CNY cycle and bringing forward rate support.

Targeted blank sailings tighten supply

Carrier response has been swift and highly targeted. In the five-week window from weeks 04 to 08, carriers have announced 68 blank sailings from approximately 698 scheduled departures, equating to around 10% of planned capacity being withdrawn.

Blankings are concentrated where pressure is greatest:

– 47% on trans-Pacific eastbound services
– 38% on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean routes
– 15% on transatlantic westbound services

Despite these cancellations, around 90% of sailings remain scheduled to operate, underlining that capacity management is selective rather than disruptive.

After six consecutive weeks of gains on Asia–Europe trades leading into a seasonal mini-peak, spot freight rates now sit below early-2025 highs, reinforcing that recent movements reflect timing effects rather than a weakening market.

Reliability and disruption remain constraints

Operational performance continues to limit flexibility. Global on-time performance stands at 47%, down two percentage points month on month, with reliability slipping on both trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe routes.

Winter weather disruption in Europe and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty around key maritime corridors are adding further unpredictability to schedules.

As the market moves through Chinese New Year and into the post-holiday reset, carriers retain the tools to rebalance supply quickly, meaning any near-term easing should be viewed as temporary rather than structural.

Metro’s sea freight team is already modelling Jan/Feb blank sailings and CNY rush patterns, so we can secure space, optimise routings and build contingency plans around your specific flows.

By sharing your forecasts and critical SKUs early, we can ring-fence capacity, minimise disruption and shield you as far as possible from threatened GRIs and last-minute surcharges.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to arrange a strategic review of your ex-Asia shipping patterns and lock in the resilience you need for CNY 2026 and beyond.

Balance tilting towards UK hauliers

Balance tilting towards UK hauliers

Jan 20, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

After years of competing on an uneven post-Brexit playing field, UK international hauliers are entering 2026 with structural advantages finally moving in their favour.

Regulatory change, rising cost pressures across the EU and tighter controls on cross-border movement are beginning to reshape who can compete most effectively in the UK–EU road freight market. While volumes remain contested, the direction of travel suggests improving competitiveness for UK-registered operators.

From 25 February 2026, foreign HGV drivers travelling to the UK who do not require a visa for short stays will need an Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA). Drivers without a valid ETA will not be permitted to board transport to the UK.

The Home Office has already rolled out port-based communications and visual assets to support compliance, signalling that enforcement will be practical and visible rather than theoretical. For UK hauliers, whose drivers already hold UK immigration status, this removes friction rather than adding it—reducing uncertainty at the border and improving journey reliability.

UK operators quietly rebuild momentum

Official data shows that UK-registered HGVs are beginning to recover ground in international movements. UK vehicles lifted 4% more international freight year on year, while the number of cross-border trips rose by 2%.

UK-registered vehicles now account for 13% of powered vehicle trips to Europe and that recent growth contrasts with a more challenging picture for foreign operators. Freight lifted by foreign-registered HGVs to and from the UK fell by over 5% in 2023, reflecting pressure on both import and export legs.

According to the Road Haulage Association (RHA), EU operators are entering a period of stagnation rather than expansion. Growth is constrained not by lack of demand, but by rising operating costs and regulatory pressure.

Fuel, tolls and insurance costs continue to increase across the EU, while driver shortages are forecast to reach 400,000 by 2026. At the same time, mandatory investment in digital systems and the EU Green Deal’s push towards alternative-fuel vehicles are adding capital strain, particularly for smaller fleets. New regulatory requirements are also tightening operational flexibility, limiting how easily EU hauliers can redeploy assets into the UK market.

The RHA concludes. “Since 2004, trips by total foreign-registered powered vehicles have outnumbered trips by UK-registered powered vehicles… the resilience and resourcefulness of UK international hauliers may finally put them at a competitive advantage in 2026, as the playing field changes.”

A more balanced market

Taken together, these factors suggest a gradual rebalancing rather than a sudden shift. UK hauliers benefit from regulatory alignment at home, fewer border compliance risks and improving international volumes, while EU operators face cost inflation, labour shortages and tighter access conditions.

In 2026, competitiveness is likely to be defined not by scale alone, but by compliance readiness, operational certainty and cost control—areas where UK hauliers are increasingly well positioned to compete.

As regulatory change reshapes cross-border haulage and competitiveness shifts, execution and network design matter as much as cost. Metro supports shippers with compliant, reliable road freight solutions across the UK and Europe, combining local operational strength with cross-border expertise.

As part of GB Global, Metro also benefits from access to commercial vehicle fleets operating in both the UK and EU, allowing capacity to be deployed where it delivers the greatest reliability and value. This balanced model helps customers manage risk, maintain service continuity and adapt as market conditions evolve.

EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to find out more about Metro’s road freight capabilities

UK supply chain policy is reshaping shipper risk and resilience

UK supply chain policy is reshaping shipper risk and resilience

Jan 7, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , ,

Government support for supply chains is increasingly being framed as a matter of national capability rather than short-term intervention. That shift was made explicit in June 2025, when the government’s Modern Industrial Strategy earmarked £600m for logistics sites, signalling that logistics, freight and supply chains are now viewed as strategic economic infrastructure.

Against that backdrop, current support for shippers and manufacturers is delivered through a mix of strategy, guidance and targeted funding, with a clear emphasis on resilience, economic security, clean energy and zero-emission freight rather than generic subsidies.

Strategic focus: critical imports and resilience

The UK Critical Imports and Supply Chains Strategy sets out how government will work with business and international partners across five priorities:

  • Improving supply chain analysis and risk visibility
  • Removing barriers affecting critical imports
  • Strengthening shock-response capability
  • Adapting supply chains to long-term global trends
  • Expanding collaboration with business and academia

The aim is not to control supply chains, but to ensure the UK can anticipate risk, respond faster to disruption and secure access to essential goods.

Practical resilience tools for business

To support this, the Department for Business and Trade has published a Supply Chain Resilience Framework, supported by practical guidance for organisations in both the public and private sectors. The framework focuses on five core areas:

  • Supplier diversification
  • Stock and inventory management
  • On-shoring and near-shoring options
  • Demand management
  • Data quality and supply-chain visibility

As part of the Critical Imports Strategy, government also plans to introduce an online reporting portal for businesses to flag red tape or disruption affecting critical imports, with a commitment to work with industry to remove barriers “wherever possible”.

Supply chains and economic security

The new Supply Chains Centre, based within the Department for Business and Trade, is being established to take a more assertive, strategic and data-led approach to supply-chain security. Its remit includes enhanced analysis, early warning of risks and targeted interventions to ensure continued access to essential goods.

This sits alongside published “Secure your supply chains” guidance, including resilience checklists and links to wider “Safeguarding Supply” resources. Together, these initiatives reflect a broader economic security agenda, where supply chains are treated as critical to both national prosperity and national security.

Innovation funding for resilient supply chains

Public funding is also being directed toward innovation and future-proofing initiatives, including:

  • ReImagining Supply Chains Network Plus (RiSC+), backed by UK Research and Innovation, supporting modelling tools and digital-twin approaches to anticipate disruption across sectors such as food and critical minerals
  • The Circular Critical Materials Supply Chains (CLIMATES) initiative, supporting UK-based supply chains for rare earths and other critical materials through project and partnership funding
  • Regional and sector-specific programmes, often co-funded via the UK Shared Prosperity Fund, offering R&D grants, training and specialist support for SMEs navigating international supply chains

Sector-specific programmes and logistics decarbonisation

Targeted funding is also being directed at strategic sectors. Great British Energy’s “Energy Engineered in the UK” programme includes £1bn of investment into clean-energy supply chains, with a £300m Supply Chain Fund focused on offshore wind and network infrastructure.

In logistics, government support for zero-emission HGVs has expanded, with grants now reducing the upfront cost of electric lorries by up to £120,000. This is designed to accelerate fleet transition, stimulate innovation in green logistics and strengthen the resilience and sustainability of freight supply chains.

What this means for shippers

The policy direction is clear: government expects importers and exporters to map critical dependencies, diversify sourcing and build more robust contingency plans. Resilience, transparency and data quality are no longer optional.

Shippers that can demonstrate strong risk management, clear visibility and close collaboration with carriers and logistics partners will be better positioned to benefit from government-backed initiatives — and to reassure customers operating in increasingly volatile markets.

How Metro can help

Metro works with shippers to translate policy intent into practical supply-chain execution — strengthening routing flexibility, inventory strategy, carrier engagement and contingency planning across ocean, air, road and logistics.

If you’d like support assessing supply-chain resilience, managing disruption risk or aligning your logistics strategy with evolving UK policy priorities EMAIL Managing Director, Andy Smith.

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