The evolving security situation across the Middle East is now materially affecting both ocean and air freight networks, with implications extending far beyond the region itself.
The Middle East is currently classified as high-risk for international transport operations, and the resulting disruption is creating a supply chain shock with no modern precedent.
Unlike isolated regional events, this situation affects two of the world’s most critical trade corridors simultaneously: the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea/Suez route.
The ripple effects are already visible.
Ocean freight: structural disruption, not just diversion
Over 2% of the global container fleet is currently positioned in or near the Persian Gulf. Several major carriers have suspended Gulf bookings or limited transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Whereas the Red Sea disruption allowed vessels to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times but preserving destination access, a full restriction in the Persian Gulf removes the destination entirely for Gulf-bound cargo.
This includes major transhipment hubs handling significant volumes between Asia, the Indian Subcontinent and Europe.
Carrier responses include:
- Suspension of high-risk sailings
- Diversion around Southern Africa
- Vessels instructed to seek safe anchorage
- Potential discharge of Gulf-bound cargo at intermediate hubs
Emergency war-risk and conflict surcharges are now being applied across specific Gulf and Red Sea routes, alongside sharply rising marine insurance premiums.
The likely secondary impact:
- Port congestion at alternative hubs such as Salalah, Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Duqm and Colombo
- Knock-on bottlenecks at Singapore, Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas
- Upward pressure on spot rates as effective capacity tightens
The displacement of volume may take weeks, potentially months, to stabilise.
Air freight: capacity shock across a critical corridor
Air cargo networks are also under pressure.
Regional airspace closures affecting the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Israel and Jordan have significantly reduced available lift.
Global air cargo capacity is currently down by approximately 18%, with Asia–Middle East–Europe capacity falling by around 26%.
Airlines are bypassing traditional Gulf hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, resulting in:
- Increased direct Asia–Europe flights
- Extended routings for India–Europe and India–North America
- Congestion at alternative technical stops
- A potential 7–10 day backlog, even with rapid reopening
Sustained disruption could result in upward rate movement, particularly on Asia–Europe lanes.
Wider Market Impact
Energy markets have reacted sharply, increasing fuel costs for both ocean carriers and airlines. This adds further upward pressure on operating costs and may feed through into freight pricing.
What This Means for Shippers
In practical terms, customers should expect:
- Extended transit times
- Volatile routing patterns
- Increased surcharges
- Greater congestion risk at transhipment hubs
- Potential rate fluctuations
Visibility and proactive planning are now critical
At Metro, we are maintaining continuous liaison with carriers, airlines and insurers, actively reviewing alternative routing options and communicating directly with affected customers.
As geopolitical disruption reshapes trade flows, agility and early visibility will determine how effectively supply chains absorb the shock.
We will continue to provide structured updates as the situation develops.
If you would like to review exposure across your current shipments or upcoming bookings, our team is available to support scenario planning and contingency routing.
