Tariff Front-loading Pushes US Imports from Record Highs to Year-End Declines

Tariff Front-loading Pushes US Imports from Record Highs to Year-End Declines

Aug 19, 2025 | , , ,

After setting an all-time monthly record for container imports in July, US retailers are bracing for a sharp reversal to close out 2025, with volumes projected to tumble nearly 20% year on year through the holiday season.

The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) latest Global Port Tracker shows that front-loading tied to tariff deadlines and labour fears has left supply chains overstocked heading into the final quarter. As a result, the NRF forecasts full-year imports will be down almost 6% on 2024.

September’s forecast suggest that inbound containerised cargo will be down 20% on last year, while October and November are predicted to be almost 20% below 2024 levels. November would mark the lowest monthly total since April 2023. December imports are also set to fall nearly 20% year over year.

This comes in stark contrast to July, when tariff-driven front-loading propelled US imports to 2.609 million TEUs. The highest monthly figure ever recorded. Ports such as Los Angeles and Houston reported double-digit growth compared with June, as shippers rushed to beat potential duty increases. Imports from Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent set new records, while China’s volumes rebounded 36% month on month, even if still down compared with 2024.

But analysts caution that the surge represented a distortion, not a sustainable trend. “Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect,” warned one. “This will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand.”

The tariff backdrop remains fluid. Washington and Beijing recently extended their trade truce until November, keeping tariffs at 30% on Chinese goods entering the US and 10% on American exports to China. That temporary pause avoided the escalation to triple-digit duties threatened earlier in the year, but left shippers in limbo.

Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said the figures underline how tariffs are reshaping supply chains. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves,” he noted.

With consumer demand uncertain and trade policy still in flux, retailers are preparing for a far quieter peak season than the record-breaking summer surge suggested.

From record highs to steep year-end declines, many supply chains are overstocked and exposed to policy uncertainty.

In this volatile environment, shippers need more than capacity, they need agility and control.

Metro’s dedicated sea freight team and expanding US footprint, helps businesses navigate these swings with confidence. From proactive capacity management and efficient routing to supply chain visibility and inventory optimisation, we ensure your cargo keeps moving smoothly across the Pacific, whatever the market conditions.

EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, to discuss how Metro can safeguard your transpacific supply chain.

H1 2025: Six Developments Reshaping Global Trade

H1 2025: Six Developments Reshaping Global Trade

Aug 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The first half of 2025 has been one of the most turbulent periods for supply chains in recent memory. From renewed tariff wars to fresh geopolitical flashpoints, logistics professionals have had to contend with a constantly shifting landscape.

At the same time, structural challenges around skills, safety, and sustainability have continued to grow. Here we review six developments that defined H1 2025.

1. Tariffs return to the fore
The pause in US tariff escalation ended in August, with the White House reintroducing “reciprocal” tariffs that apply baseline duties of 10% to all countries and higher rates of 10–41% depending on origin. The UK sit at the low end, while Syria faces the steepest levels. Brazil has been singled out further, hit by an additional 40% levy. Canada also saw tariffs raised from 25% to 35% on certain goods, justified by Washington’s claim that Ottawa has not done enough to curb fentanyl flows.

The executive order applies from 7 August 2025, with a grace period allowing cargo already loaded onto vessels before that date to arrive until 5 October 2025. To add complexity, US Customs will also impose new fees on Chinese-built or operated vessels from 14 October, potentially forcing alliances such as the Ocean Alliance into costly fleet reshuffles. Carriers are already working through how to redeploy capacity to avoid penalties, with COSCO and OOCL particularly exposed.

2. New shipping alliances reshape networks
The recomposition of global shipping alliances in Q1 has reshaped carrier strategies. The launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd marked one of the most significant realignments in recent years, focused on achieving 90%+ schedule reliability. Shippers are already seeing more dependable services, but questions remain about whether premium pricing will follow.

Other alliances, particularly Ocean and THE Alliance (now Premier Alliance), are recalibrating networks, with competition sharpening across Asia–Europe and transpacific trades. For shippers, the alliance changes mean rethinking service contracts and adapting to new network structures that could endure for much of the decade.

3. Houthi attacks deepen Red Sea crisis
The Red Sea crisis, triggered by Houthi rebel attacks, has now stretched on for nearly two years. In July 2025 the threat escalated further with the sinking of the Magic Seas, a Greek-operated vessel targeted for its links to companies calling at Israeli ports. Analysis suggests that one in six vessels globally could now be considered threatened under the Houthis’ broad definition of violators.

For container lines, this effectively rules out a return to Suez Canal routings before 2026 — and possibly not until 2027. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds up to two weeks to Asia–Europe journeys, pushing up costs and insurance premiums, and putting additional strain on fleet capacity. The Red Sea instability has been a reminder of how localised conflicts can have global consequences for supply chains.

4. Logistics skills shortages persist
The UK continues to face a significant shortfall in logistics skills, with the Road Haulage Association estimating a deficit of around 50,000 HGV drivers. The ONS also reports 6,000 fewer courier and delivery drivers than the previous year. With 55% of HGV drivers aged between 50 and 65, the demographic imbalance remains a long-term concern.

Factors include reduced access to EU workers post-Brexit, poor industry perception, and limited uptake of government training schemes. Although the crisis is not as acute as during the height of the pandemic, the ageing workforce and lack of young entrants mean structural shortages will continue. Rising wage costs, recruitment struggles, and bottlenecks in road transport all add to the burden on UK supply chains.

5. EV shipping challenges raise alarm
The growth of electric vehicle (EV) trade has created new safety risks at sea. Several high-profile fires on car carriers have been linked to lithium-ion batteries, sparking concern among insurers, regulators, and shipowners. Insurers are pushing for tougher loading protocols, enhanced crew training, and more advanced fire suppression systems.

For supply chains, this adds cost and complexity to automotive logistics, with carriers facing higher insurance premiums and the need to retrofit vessels. It is also slowing the momentum of EV exports, just as demand for cleaner vehicles accelerates globally.

6. Sustainability regulations tighten
Sustainability regulation is reshaping procurement strategies. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is beginning to impact trade in carbon-intensive products such as steel, aluminium, and cement, with importers required to report embedded emissions.

At the same time, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is moving toward a tipping point. UK and EU mandates are pushing airlines to integrate SAF into their fuel mix, with new investments underway to scale production.

While tariffs and geopolitics grab headlines, sustainability is quietly becoming a decisive factor in supplier choice, cost structures, and long-term resilience planning. For many organisations, compliance with emissions and ESG frameworks is no longer optional but critical.

Outlook
H1 2025 has exposed the vulnerability of supply chains to political shocks, armed conflict, safety risks, and structural labour shortages. Tariffs, alliances, and attacks have disrupted networks, while long-term challenges around sustainability and skills remain unresolved.

The message for supply chain leaders is clear: resilience, agility, and visibility will be critical in the second half of 2025, as disruption becomes the new normal.

H1 2025 has underlined how vulnerable global supply chains have become and staying ahead demands visibility, expertise, and a trusted partner by your side.

Metro’s account management team works proactively with customers to anticipate risks, share insights, and design solutions that are resilient and adaptable to change.

Our expertise encompasses dangerous goods and lithium battery shipping, customs, and multimodal freight, backed by a strong people strategy that includes apprenticeships, engagement programmes, and our Great Place to Work certification.

We are also leading the way on sustainability. Metro has been carbon neutral for five years, pioneering the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while our MVT ECO platform helps businesses forecast, measure, and offset emissions across their global supply chains.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how Metro can build resilience into your supply chain.

Asian Cargo Surge Threatens to Overwhelm North Europe Ports

Asian Cargo Surge Threatens to Overwhelm North Europe Ports

Aug 5, 2025 | , , , , ,

North Europe’s container gateways face a turbulent August and September as a surge of inbound cargo from Asia collides with already stretched terminal operations.

Strong import demand through the first half of the year has driven double‑digit growth in volumes, with the peak season now set to push many ports to breaking point.

For months, operators have battled chronic congestion, with delayed vessel arrivals throwing schedules into disarray and container yards struggling under sustained high occupancy. The anticipated wave of summer imports will magnify these pressures, raising the risk of longer delays and service disruption well into the autumn.

Rising volumes, falling reliability
Exports from Asia to Europe have maintained strong growth into the second half, with China–EU shipments in particular climbing at a double‑digit rate year‑on‑year. This pattern typically sees July sailings arrive in Europe through August and September, concentrating peak loads into an already fragile network.

Schedule reliability has deteriorated sharply. On‑time arrivals for Asia–North Europe services have dropped from more than two‑fifths in May to less than one‑third in July. Larger vessels deployed to circumvent southern Africa are adding to the strain, extending berth stays and raising yard utilisation. Prolonged transit times are feeding greater volatility and unpredictability across the supply chain.

Not all ports are equally affected, but the most severe congestion has been concentrated at London Gateway, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Rotterdam. Antwerp and Hamburg are further hampered by high barge delays, worsened by low water levels restricting inland waterway capacity. Some gateways still report healthy throughput, yet overall capacity buffers are now minimal.

Carrier work‑arounds
Lines are adjusting strategies to ease bottlenecks. Some are replacing transhipment legs with direct calls to Scandinavian ports, reducing container moves by two‑thirds on certain routes. Others are diverting volumes away from heavily congested hubs or shifting calls to less‑utilised terminals such as Le Havre, Zeebrugge, Bremerhaven, and Wilhelmshaven.

Carriers are also moving boxes from deep‑sea terminals into inland depots to free yard space, although low Rhine water levels continue to limit barge utilisation. With inland capacity already tight, this offers only partial relief.

While tactical adjustments may prevent a complete choke‑point, the outlook for the remainder of the summer remains challenging. Persistent high demand, combined with limited progress in clearing congestion, suggests the sector will remain under pressure until at least the final quarter of the year.

Metro’s sea freight teams are actively monitoring port performance, vessel schedules, and rate movements across all major trade lanes. We work with customers to secure priority bookings, optimise equipment and container allocation, and design alternative routings to avoid bottlenecks and minimise disruption.

Email Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to discuss current market conditions, risk‑mitigation strategies, and booking solutions tailored to your business priorities.

Carriers Reroute as European Ports Buckle Under Congestion

Carriers Reroute as European Ports Buckle Under Congestion

Jul 22, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

European container terminals continue to face mounting congestion, triggering service reshuffles, extended inland delays, and spiking freight rates. At several key hubs, container yard density surpassed 80%, pushing carriers to adjust port calls and rethink network strategies in the heart of the traditional peak shipping season.

Carriers have responded to the gridlock by diverting ships away from overloaded gateways. Some carriers have selected Southampton as an alternative for services originally scheduled at London Gateway. Major carriers are reshuffling calls across Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Antwerp, where vessels arrive late, berths are full, and inland connections are strained.

Inland, the disruption ripples out; with truck and, on the continent, barge operators facing long wait times. Terminals have been suspending empty container redeliveries and rail services are under pressure. A full rail shutdown in Hamburg this month has already forced some shippers to reroute cargo via Bremerhaven. Further south, Italian ports like Genoa face looming rail blackouts due to planned infrastructure works, extending from late July into August.

Asian Volumes Surge Into Europe
Asia-Europe container flows surged by around 9% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, with volumes from Asia to North Europe up nearly 7% and Asia-Mediterranean flows climbing over 12%. Carriers responded by deploying record capacity into North Europe in July, exceeding 1.15 million TEUs. However, blank sailings have also increased, reflecting attempts to balance strong demand with schedule disruptions.

In contrast, Asia-Mediterranean services will see a record 883,000 TEUs deployed in August, with blank sailings sharply reduced, underscoring the divergent strategies between North Europe and Med routes.

Freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates on Asia-North Europe lanes climbed by nearly $500 per FEU in July, as major carriers pushed through increases. Overweight surcharges are also appearing on some China origins, with carriers prioritising lighter cargo and high-cube containers to optimise vessel utilisation.

Inland Disruption Worsens
Average barge waiting times have reached over three days at Antwerp and nearly three days at Rotterdam, further compounded by low water levels on the Rhine that restrict barge loads and trigger surcharges.

Meanwhile, inland networks across Italy brace for rail service suspensions through August, cutting off key routes from ports like Genoa, La Spezia, and Vado Ligure.

The effects are far-reaching, with extensive delays, higher costs, equipment shortages at many locations and circular modal stress, as rail shutdowns push more volume onto trucks and barges.

With peak season in full swing and continued demand expected into August, shippers should share space requirements early, ideally one to two weeks in advance, to avoid delays, book the optimum service and secure container equipment.

Metro’s sea freight teams are closely monitoring port performance, vessel schedules, and rate shifts across all major trade lanes. We help customers secure priority bookings, optimise equipment and container allocation, and design alternative routings to bypass bottlenecks.

EMAIL our Managing Director Andrew Smith to discuss current conditions, risk mitigation strategies, and booking solutions tailored to your business priorities.

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