While recent developments in India and Canada suggest some relief from labour disputes, the threat of strikes continues to loom over port operations and global supply chains. The situation remains precarious, especially with the added complications from Red Sea diversions, which could magnify the impact of any further industrial action.

Typically, strikes at ports and other supply chain hubs cause only localised disruptions. However, the current climate is fraught with uncertainty. Sea-Intelligence has warned that even a single day of strike action on the U.S. East Coast could create a six-day backlog to clear containers.

If a strike were to last a week in early October, its effects might not be fully resolved until mid-November, while a two-week strike’s impact might be felt well into 2025, further straining already fragile supply chains.

Recent resolutions

Canada
The Canadian government acted within a day to end a rail strike that began on 23rd August, ordering Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) to resume operations and enter binding arbitration with the Teamsters Union. The Canada Industrial Relations Board extended expired collective agreements until new ones are finalised, temporarily safeguarding the supply chain.

However, the union has challenged this decision by filing four separate appeals with the Federal Court of Appeal, suggesting that the risk of further strike action may not be entirely averted.

India
Potential nationwide strike action involving 12 major ports from the 28th August was avoided when the government agreed to wage increases and additional benefits for around 20,000 port workers. Union leaders insist that the strike threat played a crucial role in securing the deal, preventing significant disruption during the peak export season.

Ongoing threats

Germany
The threat of strikes at major ports remains, as the trade union ver.di has rejected the latest offer from the Central Association of German Seaport Operators (ZDS). With the contract now expired, warning strikes have already occurred in key ports such as Hamburg and Bremerhaven. Ver.di is pressing ZDS to return to negotiations with a more substantial offer, raising concerns about potential disruptions if an agreement is not reached soon.

United States
The risk of strikes at East and Gulf Coast ports is growing, with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) threatening action from 1st October. Container spot rates from Asia to the U.S. have remained high, and carriers acknowledge that a strike could sustain these elevated rates through the end of the year.

The ILA has been holding ‘wage scale meetings’ in New Jersey this week, where delegates are reviewing master contract demands and preparing strike committees from Maine to Texas in anticipation of the 1st October deadline.

East Coast port employers, represented by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), have stated that they have been unable to secure a meeting with the ILA but remain committed to negotiating a new agreement with the union’s leadership.

The early peak season, driven by shippers eager to front-load holiday goods, has already caused concerns about overcapacity. A strike could exacerbate these issues, leaving carriers with limited options to mitigate the impact.

As negotiations remain tense and the risk of disruptions continues to grow, businesses and supply chain managers must stay vigilant and proactive in their planning. Unresolved labour disputes could have significant consequences for global trade, particularly as the year-end approaches.

We have contingency plans in place to avoid ports likely to be most affected by strikes, as well as alternative routes and entry points. Please share your forecasts as early as possible so that we can mitigate possible issues ahead of time.

To discuss these issues and how Metro can protect your supply chain, please EMAIL Andrew Smith, Chief Commercial Officer.