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H1 2025: Six Developments Reshaping Global Trade

The first half of 2025 has been one of the most turbulent periods for supply chains in recent memory. From renewed tariff wars to fresh geopolitical flashpoints, logistics professionals have had to contend with a constantly shifting landscape.

At the same time, structural challenges around skills, safety, and sustainability have continued to grow. Here we review six developments that defined H1 2025.

1. Tariffs return to the fore
The pause in US tariff escalation ended in August, with the White House reintroducing “reciprocal” tariffs that apply baseline duties of 10% to all countries and higher rates of 10–41% depending on origin. The UK sit at the low end, while Syria faces the steepest levels. Brazil has been singled out further, hit by an additional 40% levy. Canada also saw tariffs raised from 25% to 35% on certain goods, justified by Washington’s claim that Ottawa has not done enough to curb fentanyl flows.

The executive order applies from 7 August 2025, with a grace period allowing cargo already loaded onto vessels before that date to arrive until 5 October 2025. To add complexity, US Customs will also impose new fees on Chinese-built or operated vessels from 14 October, potentially forcing alliances such as the Ocean Alliance into costly fleet reshuffles. Carriers are already working through how to redeploy capacity to avoid penalties, with COSCO and OOCL particularly exposed.

2. New shipping alliances reshape networks
The recomposition of global shipping alliances in Q1 has reshaped carrier strategies. The launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd marked one of the most significant realignments in recent years, focused on achieving 90%+ schedule reliability. Shippers are already seeing more dependable services, but questions remain about whether premium pricing will follow.

Other alliances, particularly Ocean and THE Alliance (now Premier Alliance), are recalibrating networks, with competition sharpening across Asia–Europe and transpacific trades. For shippers, the alliance changes mean rethinking service contracts and adapting to new network structures that could endure for much of the decade.

3. Houthi attacks deepen Red Sea crisis
The Red Sea crisis, triggered by Houthi rebel attacks, has now stretched on for nearly two years. In July 2025 the threat escalated further with the sinking of the Magic Seas, a Greek-operated vessel targeted for its links to companies calling at Israeli ports. Analysis suggests that one in six vessels globally could now be considered threatened under the Houthis’ broad definition of violators.

For container lines, this effectively rules out a return to Suez Canal routings before 2026 — and possibly not until 2027. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds up to two weeks to Asia–Europe journeys, pushing up costs and insurance premiums, and putting additional strain on fleet capacity. The Red Sea instability has been a reminder of how localised conflicts can have global consequences for supply chains.

4. Logistics skills shortages persist
The UK continues to face a significant shortfall in logistics skills, with the Road Haulage Association estimating a deficit of around 50,000 HGV drivers. The ONS also reports 6,000 fewer courier and delivery drivers than the previous year. With 55% of HGV drivers aged between 50 and 65, the demographic imbalance remains a long-term concern.

Factors include reduced access to EU workers post-Brexit, poor industry perception, and limited uptake of government training schemes. Although the crisis is not as acute as during the height of the pandemic, the ageing workforce and lack of young entrants mean structural shortages will continue. Rising wage costs, recruitment struggles, and bottlenecks in road transport all add to the burden on UK supply chains.

5. EV shipping challenges raise alarm
The growth of electric vehicle (EV) trade has created new safety risks at sea. Several high-profile fires on car carriers have been linked to lithium-ion batteries, sparking concern among insurers, regulators, and shipowners. Insurers are pushing for tougher loading protocols, enhanced crew training, and more advanced fire suppression systems.

For supply chains, this adds cost and complexity to automotive logistics, with carriers facing higher insurance premiums and the need to retrofit vessels. It is also slowing the momentum of EV exports, just as demand for cleaner vehicles accelerates globally.

6. Sustainability regulations tighten
Sustainability regulation is reshaping procurement strategies. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is beginning to impact trade in carbon-intensive products such as steel, aluminium, and cement, with importers required to report embedded emissions.

At the same time, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is moving toward a tipping point. UK and EU mandates are pushing airlines to integrate SAF into their fuel mix, with new investments underway to scale production.

While tariffs and geopolitics grab headlines, sustainability is quietly becoming a decisive factor in supplier choice, cost structures, and long-term resilience planning. For many organisations, compliance with emissions and ESG frameworks is no longer optional but critical.

Outlook
H1 2025 has exposed the vulnerability of supply chains to political shocks, armed conflict, safety risks, and structural labour shortages. Tariffs, alliances, and attacks have disrupted networks, while long-term challenges around sustainability and skills remain unresolved.

The message for supply chain leaders is clear: resilience, agility, and visibility will be critical in the second half of 2025, as disruption becomes the new normal.

H1 2025 has underlined how vulnerable global supply chains have become and staying ahead demands visibility, expertise, and a trusted partner by your side.

Metro’s account management team works proactively with customers to anticipate risks, share insights, and design solutions that are resilient and adaptable to change.

Our expertise encompasses dangerous goods and lithium battery shipping, customs, and multimodal freight, backed by a strong people strategy that includes apprenticeships, engagement programmes, and our Great Place to Work certification.

We are also leading the way on sustainability. Metro has been carbon neutral for five years, pioneering the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while our MVT ECO platform helps businesses forecast, measure, and offset emissions across their global supply chains.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how Metro can build resilience into your supply chain.

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Expanding Intermodal Capability Across Europe with KLOG

With fellow group member KLOG, the Portuguese logistics specialist, our customers can now access a significantly enhanced intermodal network across Iberia and continental Europe, offering greater flexibility, sustainability, and control through an effective, environmentally friendly transport solution.

KLOG is one of Iberia’s leading providers of intermodal, groupage, and full-load transport, offering a well-established rail and short-sea service network that connects Portugal and Spain to key European markets—including Germany, Poland, France, and the UK in partnership with Metro.

Their network includes multiple weekly block train departures across strategic corridors, supported by last-mile delivery options and an advanced 24/7 Control Tower.

Unlocking smarter, greener European supply chains
KLOG’s intermodal services are tailored for shippers seeking reliable, cost-effective and lower-emission alternatives to road-only transport. With a wide range of 45’ equipment; curtain-sided, dry, reefer, and ISO tanks, KLOG can support a broad mix of cargo types, from consumer goods to chemicals, fresh produce and furniture.

Core rail corridors include:

  • Portugal–Poland & Germany: Two weekly block trains between Entroncamento and both Poznan and Duisburg, routing via Spain and France, with a third frequency planned.
  • Portugal–Spain: Four weekly trains between Entroncamento and Tarragona, plus 2–3 weekly services from Tarragona to Bilbao, Valladolid and Sevilla.
  • Portugal–Germany: Two weekly trains linking Lousado and Duisburg, via Mouguerre, France.
  • Short-sea and rail from Poland: Intermodal connections via Gdansk to Bilbao and onward rail to Tarragona.

Intermodal transit times are highly competitive, many comparable with full truckload delivery times, but with significantly lower road dependency and greater environmental benefit.

KLOG’s services delivers average CO₂ reductions of 85–90% compared to road freight. Rail is more fuel-efficient, produces fewer emissions, and removes trucks from congested European roads, contributing to cleaner air, fewer road accidents, and less strain on driver resources.

With sustainability now embedded in corporate and regulatory priorities, intermodal freight offers a practical path for reducing emissions without sacrificing reliability or control. And as rail corridors increasingly move towards electrification, the carbon savings will only grow.

Your direct route to smarter European logistics
With KLOG, Metro’s customers gain access to a powerful intermodal network fully supported by:

  • Metro’s MVT supply chain platform for complete vendor-to-destination visibility across modes
  • Dedicated European team for regional expertise and support
  • High-frequency intermodal services, linking directly with Metro’s road network for final and last-mile delivery.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, managing director, today to learn how KLOG’s intermodal network could reduce your carbon footprint, without compromising on speed, service, or cost.

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Freight market outlook 2025: Navigating uncertainty and change

The freight industry faces a challenging 2025, with ongoing diversions around Africa, potential labour strikes, and looming tariff changes shaping the air and sea freight landscape. 

While best and worst-case scenarios could unfold, the most likely outcome lies somewhere in between, creating a complex and dynamic environment for shippers and carriers alike.

Red sea disruptions and capacity adjustments

Persistent attacks in the Red Sea continue to divert container traffic via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times and keeping freight rates elevated. Even if hostilities end, a lengthy adjustment period is likely as shipping lines reintroduce Red Sea routes.

With carriers set to phase in new networks in February and March, further changes to accommodate Suez transits may not occur before August. This transitional phase could temporarily worsen congestion and delays. However, once stabilised, the market would benefit from restored transit times and reduced rates.

The reintroduction of capacity also raises concerns about overcapacity. Carriers are actively working to mitigate this risk through measures like scrapping older vessels, reducing charter fleets, slow steaming, and blank sailings. While these steps may stabilise rates, their effectiveness will depend on demand levels throughout the year.

Labour strikes and tariff impacts

Despite agreement on outstanding issues on the 8th January, the threat of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports has not entirely lifted. And while they are theoretically unlikely, they could remain a possibility until Summer 2025.

Tariffs, on the other hand, remain a critical factor. New US tariffs in 2025, particularly on Chinese imports and goods from Canada and Mexico, could drastically reshape trade flows. Anticipation of these tariffs has already led to front-loading, as shippers move goods early to avoid higher costs. This behaviour may disrupt seasonality, creating spikes in demand and rates before tariffs take effect, followed by lower volumes afterwards. Additionally, tariffs could encourage sourcing shifts to countries like Vietnam and India, further altering global trade dynamics.

Air freight under pressure

Air freight, driven by strong eCommerce demand from Asia, enjoyed robust growth in 2024, but 2025 presents significant headwinds. Potential changes to the US ‘de minimis’ thresholds could curb eCommerce shipments, while Trump’s proposed tariffs may disrupt transpacific flows further.

Capacity constraints, already a challenge, could ease slightly if eCommerce demand slows. This would benefit transatlantic shippers, who saw air cargo spot rates from Western Europe to the US double during the 2024 peak season. However, other pressures loom, including the EU’s ReFuelEU Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandate, which took effect on 1st January 2025, requiring a minimum of 2% SAF at EU airports—raising airline costs.

A year of uncertainty

2025 will be a year of adjustment for the freight industry as carriers and shippers navigate geopolitical risks, evolving capacity challenges, and shifting trade policies.

In addition weather related issues as a result of global warming and other environmental impact need to be considered during certain months and seasons. Hurricanes, typhoons, flooding, fires, volcanic occurrences could all have an impact in certain regions at different times.

Shippers must prepare for fluctuating demand and rates, anticipate potential disruptions, and stay informed. Flexibility and proactive planning will be key to navigating the complexities of 2025 and ensuring long-term success.

For urgent and sensitive shipments, Metro offers tailored airfreight, charter, and sea/air solutions. With block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA), to guarantee space and competitive rates on the busiest routes.

In a volatile sea freight market, our fixed-rate agreements on popular shipping routes reduce risk and provide essential budgetary certainty. 

To explore how Metro’s carrier agreements could optimise your supply chains and save you money in 2025, please EMAIL our Managing Director Andy Smith.

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2024: Reflecting on a Dynamic Year in Global Supply Chains

As 2024 comes to an end, we look back at a year filled with extraordinary events that shaped the global supply chain landscape. From geopolitical challenges to shifts in logistics trends, the past year has underscored the importance of resilience, adaptability, and innovation in our industry.

Here are just a few of the major supply chain developments we covered and that defined 2024:

Houthi attacks in the Red Sea: The crisis continues, forcing vessels to divert around the southern tip of Africa, creating new delays and challenges for global trade.

Global RoRo capacity shortages: The shipping of automobiles was heavily impacted as carriers grappled with fleet reductions from the pandemic.

Labour unrest: Strikes surged 42% year-over-year, including a six-week standstill at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

Port of Baltimore closure: The collision and collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge caused a three-month disruption.

eCommerce growth: Air freight demand soared on Asia-North America lanes as online shopping reached new heights.

ILA strike: A three-day US East Coast dockworker strike in October highlighted ongoing tensions over automation, with another strike looming in January 2025.

Global reefer shortages: The demand for refrigerated containers remains unmet, impacting perishable goods transport.

Political shifts: The re-election of Donald Trump signals potential changes in trade policies, with protectionism and tariffs on the horizon.

Shipping alliances: New alliances reshaped container shipping routes, including Maersk’s departure from Felixstowe.

Metro’s Highlights

2024 was also a year of achievements for Metro Shipping:

Air Freight Business of the Year: We were proud to receive this accolade at the Logistics UK Awards.

Road freight expansion: Our growing road freight division continues to support our clients’ evolving needs.

Publishing sector portfolio launch: We introduced tailored logistics solutions for the publishing industry.

Great Place to Work: Metro was officially accredited, reflecting our commitment to a positive and empowering workplace culture.

As we get ready to step into 2025, we are prepared to face challenges head-on, supporting our customers with expert insights, seamless operations, and innovative solutions.

Thank you for your trust and partnership in 2024.

Wishing you a wonderful holiday season and a successful year ahead.